[1]  Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000, DOE/EIA-0581(2000) (Washington, DC, March 2000), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.html.

[2]  Energy Information Administration, Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), DOE/EIA-M063(2000) (Washington, DC, January 2000), web site www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html.

[3]  A play is a set of known or postulated oil and/or gas accumulations sharing similar geologic, geographic, and temporal qualities, such as source rock, migration pathway, timing, trapping mechanism, and hydrocarbon type. See U.S. Geological Survey, National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team, “1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources,” U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118 (1995), p. 6.

[4]  Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M062(2000) (Washington, DC, January 2000), web site www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html.

[5]  Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves 1998 Annual Report, DOE/EIA-0216(98) (Washington, DC, December 1999), p. 154.

[6]  Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves 1998 Annual Report, DOE/EIA-0216(98) (Washington, DC, December 1999), p. 154.

[7]  U.S. Geological Survey, National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team, “1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources,” U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118 (1995).

[8]  U.S. Geological Survey, National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team, “1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources,” U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118 (1995), p. 4.

[9]  U.S. Geological Survey, National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team, “1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources,” U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118 (1995), p. 5.

[10]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-13.

[11]  Robert A. Crovelli of the USGS spoke at a conference for the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) in Salt Lake City, Utah (May 9, 2000) about the new resource assessment method developed for this project.

[12]  For two sensitivity cases in AEO2000 the technology assumptions for both unconventional gas and conventional gas were adjusted to represent conditions of slow and rapid technological progress.

[13]  Appendix C details the unconventional gas technology parameters for the AEO2000 reference case, rapid technology case, and slow technology case.

[14]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-18.

[15]  M.J. Doelger and D.K. Morton, Portfolio of Emerging Natural Gas Resources: Rocky Mountain Basins. Section 1. Greater Green River Basin (Arlington, VA: Gas Research Institute, June 1999); V.A. Kuuskraa, D. Campagna, I. Drayton, J. Frank, G. Koperna, J. Kuuskraa, and M. Marquis, Portfolio of Emerging Natural Gas Resources: Rocky Mountain Basins. Section 2. Piceance Basin (Arlington, VA: Gas Research Institute, April 1999); and V.A. Kuuskraa, J. Kuuskraa, G. Koperna, I. Drayton, J. Frank, M. Marquis, A. Finley, T. McCutcheon, J. McCutcheon, and M. Doelger, Portfolio of Emerging Natural Gas Resources: Rocky Mountain Basins. Section 3. Wind River Basin (Arlington, VA: Gas Research Institute, April 1999).

[16]  U.S. Geological Survey, National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team, “1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Gas Resources,” U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118 (1995), p. 5.

[17]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-28.

[18]  V. Kuuskraa, D. Decker, S. Squires, and H. Lynn, Naturally Fractured Tight Gas Reservoir Detection Optimization: Piceance Basin (Pittsburgh, PA: National Energy Technology Laboratory, August 1996); J.C. Lorenz, N.R. Warpinski, and L.W. Teufel,  Natural Fracture Characteristics and Effects (Pittsburgh, PA: National Energy Technology Laboratory, August 1996); and H.B. Lynn, K.M.Simon, C.R. Bates, and R. Van Dok, Azimuthal Anisotropy in P-Wave 3-D (Multiazimuth) Data (Pittsburgh, PA: National Energy Technology Laboratory, August 1996).

[19]  The technological progress case is not exactly identical to the AEO2000 reference case. It reflects a gas shales mapping change incorporated into the OGSM after the production of AEO2000. This change does not significantly affect aggregate results as published in AEO2000, but it was necessary to implement this change in order to properly assess model behavior at the play level.

[20]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-30.

[21]  G. Holly K. Krus, and L. Haley, “Strategic Alliance, Multidisciplinary Teamwork Enhance Field Development in Cotton Valley Trend,” Oil & Gas Journal (March 31, 1997).

[22]  Proppants are materials inserted into fractures to prop them open in order to facilitate the release of hydrocarbons.

[23]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-32.

[24]  V. Yeager and C. Shuchart, “In situ Gels Improve Formation Acidizing,” Oil & Gas Journal (January 20, 1997).

[25]  “CO₂/Sand Fracturing,” DOE Fossil Energy TECHLINE (March 1999).

[26]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-34.

[27]  T.E. Swift and P. Mladenka, “Technology Tackles Low-Permeability Sand in South Texas,” Oil & Gas Journal (September 29, 1997).

[28]  G.A. Petzet, “Mitchell Hikes Barnett Shale Reserves, Fort Worth Basin Output in N. Texas,” Oil & Gas Journal (September 27, 1999).

[29]  Gas Research Institute, Final Report: Western Cretaceous Coal Seam Project, Prepared by Resource Enterprises, Inc. (March 31, 1995), p. 113.

[30]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-38.

[31]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-43.

[32]  “Success of Deep Horizontal Gas Well in Wyoming Stimulates Commercial Expansion of Drilling Activity,” DOE Fossil Energy TECHLINE (December 20, 1999).

[33]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-41.

[34]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-23.

[35]  “DOE Selects Second Round of Projects To Boost Low-Cost Stripper Gas Production,” DOE Fossil Energy TECHLINE (March 7, 2000).

[36]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-36.

[37]  National Energy Technology Laboratory, “FETC SUCCESS: Treating Oil and Gas Produced Waters” (Pittsburgh, PA, March 1999), web site www.fetc.doe.gov/publications/success/fuel-10.pdf.

[38]  Removal of the methane adsorbed (collected in condensed form on a surface) on the coals.

[39]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-46.

[40]  G. Moritis, “Emerging Technologies To Boost Hydrocarbon Production Efficiency,” Oil & Gas Journal (December 13, 1999).

[41]  S. Stevens, D. Spector, and P. Riemer, “Enhanced Coalbed Methane Recovery Using CO₂ Injection: Worldwide Resource and CO₂ Sequestration Potential,” Society of Petroleum Engineers, 1998 SPE International Conference and Exhibition (Beijing, China, November, 2-6, 1998).

[42]  Energy Information Administration, Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), Model Documentation 2000, Appendix 4D (prepared by Advanced Resources International, Inc.), p. 4D-49.

[43]  National Energy Technology Laboratory, “FETC SUCCESS: Groundwater Research Program” (Pittsburgh, PA, March 1999), web site www.fetc.doe.gov/publications/success/fuel-10.pdf.

[44]  Selected year-by-year results are presented in Appendix C.

[45]  The specific assumptions and parameter values of the three AEO2000 technology cases are provided in Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2000, web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo.html.