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Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry
in the
Annual Energy Outlook 2002

Table 5.  Industry Output Growth Rates, History and Projections, 1978-2020

Industry

Average Annual Output Growth Rate, 1978-2000 (Percent)

2000 Gross Output
(Billion 1992 Dollars)

2020 Gross Output
(Billion 1992 Dollars)

Average Annual Output Growth Rate, 2000-2020 (Percent)

Energy-Intensive Manufacturing

 1.0

1,100.2

  1,410.2

1.2

  Food

 1.8

   479.5

     624.8

1.3

  Paper

 2.0

   154.5

     214.3

1.6

  Bulk Chemicals

 0.6

   178.7

     223.2

1.1

  Petroleum Refining

-0.3

   152.6

     181.1

0.9

  Glass

 1.1

     22.9

       29.3

1.2

  Cement

 0.5

       5.6

         7.1

1.2

  Steel

-0.9

     70.4

       84.6

0.9

  Aluminum

 0.2

     36.1

       45.9

1.2

Non-Intensive Manufacturing

 2.4

2,922.2

  5,592.8

3.3

  Metal-Based Durables

 2.9

1,830.3

  3,983.6

4.0

  Balance of Manufacturing

 1.6

1,091.9

  1,609.1

2.0

    Total Manufacturing

 2.0

4,022.4

  7,003.0

2.8

Non-Manufacturing

 1.9

1,039.2

  1,444.4

1.7

  Agriculture—Crops

 2.0

   118.0

     153.1

1.3

  Agriculture—Other

 2.7

   185.2

     232.5

1.1

  Coal Mining

 2.5

     29.1

       36.0

1.1

  Oil and Gas Extraction

-0.2

   107.4

     140.5

1.3

  Other Mining

 1.0

     29.0

       35.9

1.1

  Construction

 2.1

   570.4

     846.5

2.0

Total Industrial

 1.9

5,061.6

  8,447.4

2.6

Real GDP (Billion 1996 Dollars)

 3.1

9,224.0

16,525.5

3.0

Note: Totals and percentages calculated from unrounded data.

Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002) (Washington, DC, December 2001).

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