Delivered Energy Consumption Projections
by Industry
in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002
Footnotes
1 The projections in this paper are based on the reference case NEMS model run prepared for Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002) (Washington, DC, December 2001). The reference case focuses on long-term events, including the supplies and prices of fossil fuels, the development of U.S. electricity markets, technology improvement, and the impact of economic growth on projected energy demand through 2020. EIA uses NEMS to produce the Annual Energy Outlook and other analysis reports. See EIA, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, DOE/EIA-0581(2000) (Washington, DC, March 2000).
2 Throughout this report, 1998 is used as the historical reference year because that is the latest data year for manufacturing delivered energy consumption collected in EIA's Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey. Projected growth rates are from 2000 through 2020 because that is the period published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002.
3 The projection methodology for the NEMS Industrial Sector Demand Module is documented in Energy Information Administration (EIA), Model Documentation Report: Industrial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M064(2002) (Washington, DC, December 2001). The methodology of NEMS is summarized in EIA, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, DOE/EIA-0581(2000) (Washington, DC, March 2000).
4 Delivered energy consumption in the petroleum refining sector is modeled in the NEMS Petroleum Market Model, which is discussed separately.
5 Arthur D. Little, Inc., Industrial Model: Update on Energy Use and Industrial Characteristics, Final Report Prepared for DAC/EIA (Cambridge, MA, September 2001).
6 The data from Arthur D. Little were revised to incorporate information from EIA’s 1998 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs/mecs98/datatables/contents.html). Previous data have been evaluated in two multi-laboratory studies: Interlaboratory Working Group, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions, ORNL/CON-444 and LBNL-40533 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory; and Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; September 1997), web site www.ornl.gov/ ORNL/Energy_Eff/labweb.htm; and Interlaboratory Working Group, Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future, ORNL/CON-476 and LBNL-44029 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory; and Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; November 2000), web site www.ornl.gov/ORNL/Energy_Eff/CEF.htm.
7 Energy Information Administration, EIA Model Documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/ EIA-M059(2002) (Washington, DC, March 2002).
8 The NEMS International Energy Module contains the representation for foreign refinery operations.
9 The value of output is denominated in constant 1992 dollars.
10 Lease and plant fuel is natural gas used in well, field, and lease operations (such as gas used in drilling operations, heaters, dehydrators, and field compressors) or used as fuel in natural gas processing plants. Lease and plant fuel consumption is modeled in the Oil and Gas Supply Module of NEMS.
11 In the separate petroleum refining section earlier in the paper, output is measured in barrels. In order to make cross industry comparisons, output from the petroleum refining sector in this summary is expressed in dollar terms. The projected growth rates using both measures are nearly identical.