1 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002) (Washington, DC, December 2001).

2 The RPS is a policy instrument that mandates that retail electricity suppliers (or alternatively electricity generators or consumers) will obtain a minimum percentage of their electricity needs from eligible renewable resources. See Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Dioxide, and Mercury and a Renewable Portfolio Standard, SR/OIAF/2001-03 (Washington, DC, July 2001), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/epp/pdf/ sroiaf(2001)03.pdf.

3 See Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/kyotorpt.html.

4 A.F. Turhollow and S.M. Cohn, Data and Sources of Biomass Supply, unpublished report (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, January 1994); M. Walsh et al., Biomass Feedstock Availability in the United States: 1999 State Level Analysis (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, April 1999, updated January 2000), web site http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/resourcedata; and M. Walsh et al., “The Economic Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Production on U.S. Agriculture” (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, May 2000), web site http:// bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/wagin/index.html.

5 Antares Group, Inc., Biomass Residue Supply Curves for the United States (Update), Report for the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (June 1999).

6 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Statistics 2001, web site www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/agro01/agro01.htm.

7 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2000, DOE/EIA-0384(2000) (Washington, DC, August 2001), p. 9, Table 1.3, “Energy Consumption by Source, 1949-2000,” web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/aerpdf.htm.

8 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2000, DOE/EIA-0384(2000) (Washington, DC, August 2001), p. 43, Table 2.1f, “Electric Power Sector Energy Consumption, 1949-2000,” web site www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/aerpdf.htm.

9 See page 15 below for discussion of the high renewables case assumptions.

10 Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Dioxide, and Mercury, and a Renewable Portfolio Standard, SR/OIAF/2001-03 (Washington, DC, July 2001), web site www. eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html.

11 The sulfur content of coal ranges from 0.2 percent to 7.0 percent by weight, on a dry basis; see R. H. Perry and D. Green, Perry’s Chemical Engineer’s Handbook, 6th Edition, (New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1984), p. 9-5. The sulfur content of biomass varies from 0.07 percent to 0.59 percent by weight, on a dry basis; see M. C. Freeman, W. J. O’Dowd, S. I. Plasinsky, and G. F. Walbert, Proceedings of the 5th International Biomass Conference of the Americas, Session 25, “Biomass Cofiring R&D and Demonstration Results for Handling, Combustion, Heat Transfer, and Emissions Issues for Coal-Fired Boilers,” web site www.bioproducts-bioenergy.gov/pdfs/bcota/default.html.

12 Biomass co-firing is the practice of introducing biomass and coal together into an existing coal-fired boiler for electricity generation purposes. The biomass can either be introduced via a dedicated feed system or mixed with coal in the coal pile and fed to the boiler through the coal feed system.

13 Sustainable Energy Ireland, CO₂ and Other Environmental Emissions Data, Table 7D, web site www.irish-energy.ie/publications/ index.html.

14 M. K. Mann and P. L. Spath, “A Comparison of the Environmental Consequences of Power from Biomass, Coal, and Natural Gas,” Presentation at the Energy Analysis Forum (Golden, CO, May 29-30, 2002), web site www.nrel.gov/analysis/pdfs/m_mann.pdf.

15 Further information on the projects can be obtained at web site www.eren.doe.gov/biopower/projects/index.htm.

16 G. Wiltsee, Lessons Learned from Existing Biomass Power Plants, NREL/SR-570-26946 (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, February 2000), web site www.nrel.gov/docs/fy00osti/26946.pdf.

17 G. Wiltsee, Lessons Learned from Existing Biomass Power Plants, NREL/SR-570-26946 (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, February 2000), web site www.nrel.gov/docs/fy00osti/26946.pdf.

18 In an open-loop process, power is generated using waste biomass materials as feedstock. An example of an open-loop process is a power plant that combusts waste wood to generate electricity. The wood is not regrown for the purpose of supplying feedstock to the power station but is a byproduct of forest clearing operations.

19 All prices are in 2000 dollars unless otherwise indicated.

20 Corn stover is the above-ground portion of the corn plant, less the ear.

21 Poplar, including aspen and cottonwood species, is widely distributed throughout the United States. Poplars being developed for commercial use are crosses between two or more species. Hybrid poplars can be established and managed with existing agricultural equipment and can be harvested with existing forestry equipment. This description from M. Walsh et al., “The Economic Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Production on U.S. Agriculture” (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, May 2000), web site http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/ papers/wagin/index.html.

22 Willow can be produced throughout the eastern United States. Those being developed for energy use are hybrid shrubs that are being produced using a close-spaced coppice system (a “coppice” is a thicket of small trees or shrubs). Planting and harvesting of willows requires specially designed machinery, which is commercially available in Europe. This description from M. Walsh et al., “The Economic Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Production on U.S. Agriculture” (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, May 2000), web site http://bioenergy. ornl.gov/papers/wagin/index.html.

23 Switchgrass is a perennial warm season grass. Its native range includes the eastern United States (east of the Rocky Mountains). It can be planted, managed, and harvested like traditional hay crops with existing agricultural equipment. This description from M. Walsh et al., “The Economic Impacts of Bioenergy Crop Production on U.S. Agriculture” (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, May 2000), web site http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/wagin/index.html.

24 The Conservation Reserve Program is a voluntary program that offers annual rent payments, incentive payments for certain activities, and cost-share assistance to establish approved cover on eligible cropland. The program encourages farmers to plant long-term resource-conserving covers to improve soil, water, and wildlife resources. The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) through the Farm Service Agency (FSA) administers the program. The CCC and FSA are managed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

25 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Statistics 2001, web site www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/agr01/agr01.htm.

26 POLYSYS can be used to simulate other scenarios, such as those assuming high wildlife diversity.

27 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Economic Indicators of the Farm Sector: Costs of Production—Major Field Crops, 1995 (Washington, DC, 1996).

28 A. McQuillan, K. Skog, T. Nagle, and R. Loveless, Marginal Cost Supply Curves for Utilizing Forest Waste Wood in the United States, unpublished manuscript (Missoula, MT: University of Montana, February 1984).

29 A.F. Turhollow and S.M. Cohn, Data and Sources of Biomass Supply, unpublished report (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, January 1994).

30 Decision Analysis Corporation, Data Documentation for the Biomass Cost Supply Schedule, Report prepared for the Energy Information Administration (Washington, DC, July 1995).

31 R.L. Graham, B.C. English, and C.E. Noon, “A Geographic Information System-based Modeling System for Evaluating the Cost of Delivered Energy Crop Feedstocks,” Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 18 (2000), pp. 309-329.

32 U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1996, P1-R96-STAB-00-NTH (Washington, DC, November 1996).

33 U.S. Department of Commerce, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 1996, P1-R96-STAB-00-NTH (Washington, DC, November 1996).

34 Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Department of Energy, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI-TR-109496 (Palo Alto, CA, December 1997), web site www.eren.doe.gov/power/techchar.html.

35 S. Plasynski, E. Hughes, R. Costello, and D. Tillman, “Biomass Cofiring: A New Look at Old Fuels for a Future Mission,” Paper presented at the Electric Power 99 conference (Baltimore, MD, April 1999).

36 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2002, DOE/EIA-0383(2002) (Washington, DC, December 2001), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

37 Electric Power Research Institute and U.S. Department of Energy, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI-TR-109496 (Palo Alto, CA, December 1997), web site www.eren.doe.gov/power/techchar.html.

38 Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Dioxide, and Mercury, and a Renewable Portfolio Standard, SR/OIAF/2001-03 (Washington, DC, July 2001), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html.

39 Biomass consumption in the 20% RPS case in 2020 (NEMS model run RPS20.D011702B) can be calculated as follows: dedicated biomass 3,759 trillion Btu, biomass co-firing 623 trillion Btu, and ethanol from cellulose 62 trillion Btu, for a biomass consumption total of 4,444 trillion Btu (excluding industrial cogeneration). From the biomass supply curves, 4,444 trillion Btu of biomass costs $2.91 per million Btu. At $2.91 per million Btu, the sources of biomass that become available would be as follows: 2,198 trillion Btu of agricultural residues, 894 trillion Btu of energy crops, 715 trillion Btu of forestry residues, and 637 trillion Btu of urban wood waste/mill residues. No additional land would have to be devoted to the production of agricultural residues, forestry residues, and urban wood waste/mill residues, which are generated as byproducts of other processes. Only energy crops would have to be planted on land specifically devoted to them. A heat content of 8,600 Btu per dry pound is assumed. The amount of energy crops needed at the plant gate can be calculated as 894 ´ 10¹² Btu ´ 1 lb (dry)/8,600 Btu ´ 1 ton/2,000 lb ´ 1 million tons/10⁶ tons = 51.98 million tons (dry) of energy crops per year. A loss of 10 percent is assumed during transportation and feedstock processing (drying, size reduction, removal of impurities). The amount of energy crops needed at the farm can be calculated as 51.98 million tons ´ 10/9 = 57.76 million tons (dry) per year. Assuming a switchgrass yield of 4 tons (dry) per acre per year, the land requirement would be 57.76 million tons (dry)/year ´ 1 acre-year/4 tons (dry) = 14.44 million acres. Assuming a switchgrass yield of 6 tons (dry) per acre per year, the land requirement would be 57.76 million tons (dry)/year ´ 1 acre-year/6 tons (dry) = 9.63 million acres.

40 U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Trends in U.S. Agriculture (2002), web site www.usda.gov/ nass/pubs/trends/index.htm.