Preface
The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), prepared by the Energy Information
Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply,
demand, and prices through 2030, based on results from EIA’s National Energy
Modeling System (NEMS). EIA published an “early release” version of the AEO2009 reference case in December 2008.
The report begins with an “Executive Summary” that highlights key aspects
of the projections. It is followed by a “Legislation and Regulations” section
that discusses evolving legislation and regulatory issues, including a
summary of recently enacted legislation, such as the Energy Improvement
and Extension Act of 2008 (EIEA2008). The next section, “Issues in Focus,”
contains discussions of selected topics, including: the impacts of limitations
on access to oil and natural gas resources on the Federal Outer Continental
Shelf (OCS); the implications of uncertainty about capital costs for new
electricity generating plants; and the result of extending the Federal
renewable production tax credit (PTC). It also discusses the relationship
between natural gas and oil prices and the basis of the world oil price
and production trends in AEO2009.
The “Market Trends” section summarizes the projections for energy markets.
The analysis in AEO2009 focuses primarily on a reference case, low and
high economic growth cases, and low and high oil price cases. Results from
a number of other alternative cases also are presented, illustrating uncertainties
associated with the reference case projections for energy demand, supply,
and prices. Complete tables for the five primary cases are provided in
Appendixes A through C. Major results from many of the alternative cases
are provided in Appendix D.
AEO2009 projections are based on Federal, State, and local laws and regulations
in effect as of November 2008. The potential impacts of pending or proposed
legislation, regulations, and standards (and sections of existing legislation
that require implementing regulations or funds that have not been appropriated)
are not reflected in the projections.
AEO2009 is published in accordance with Section 205c of the Department
of Energy (DOE) Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), which requires
the EIA Administrator to prepare annual reports on trends and projections
for energy use and supply.
Projections in AEO2009 are not statements of what will happen but of what
might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The projections
are business-as-usual trend estimates, given known technology and technological
and demographic trends. AEO2009 assumes that current laws and regulations
are maintained throughout the projections. Thus, the projections provide
a policy-neutral baseline that can be used to analyze policy initiatives.
Because energy markets are complex, models are simplified representations
of energy production and consumption, regulations, and producer and consumer
behavior. Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies,
model structures, and assumptions used in their development. Behavioral
characteristics are indicative of real-world tendencies rather than representations
of specific outcomes.
Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty. Many of the
events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated.
In addition, future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources
cannot be foreseen with certainty. Many key uncertainties in the AEO2009 projections are addressed through alternative cases.
EIA has endeavored to make these projections as objective, reliable, and
useful as possible; however, they should serve as an adjunct to, not a substitute
for, a complete and focused analysis of public policy initiatives |