Notes and Sources

59.  The AEO2007 near-term world oil prices (for 2006 and 2007) are those published in EIA’s September 2006 Short-Term Energy Outlook, web site www.eia.doe. gov/pub/forecasting/steo/oldsteos/sep06.pdf. 

60.  The USGS provides three point estimates for undiscovered and inferred resources: the mean, a 5-percent confidence interval, and a 95-percent confidence interval, with no price relationship. AEO2007 assumes that proven reserves are not subject to much uncertainty. 

61.  Includes crude oil, condensates, natural gas liquids, and refinery gains. 

62.  M.S. Crandall, Energy, Economics, and Politics in the Caspian Region (Westport, CT: Praeger Security International, 2006), p. 64. 

63.  International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report (October 6, 2006), p. 24, web site http://omrpublic.iea.org. 

64.  BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, web site www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390 (October 12, 2006). 

65.  Global Insight, “Brazil Country Brief” (October 18, 2006). 

66.  International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report (October 6, 2006), p. 22, web site http://omrpublic.iea.org.