Economic Growth 

The AEO2008 reference case reflects reduced expectations for economic growth: U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grows at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent from 2006 to 2030—0.4 percentage points slower than the rate in the AEO2007 reference case over the same period. The main factor contributing to the slower rate of growth in GDP is a lower estimate of growth in labor productivity. Nonfarm business labor productivity grows by 1.9 percent per year in the AEO2008 reference case, compared with 2.3 percent per year in AEO2007. Nonfarm employment growth is 0.9 percent per year in the AEO2008 reference case, about the same as in AEO2007. From 2006 to 2030, total industrial shipments grow by 1.3 percent per year in the AEO2008 reference case, as compared with 2.0 percent per year in AEO2007.