Introduction

[1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), DOE/EIA-0383(2009), (Washington, DC, February 2009).

[2] NEMS documentation reports are available on the EIA Homepage (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/reports/ reports_kindD.asp?type=model documentation).

[3] On December 23, 2008, after the November 5 cutoff date for inclusion of changes in Federal and State laws and regulations in AEO2009, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia issued a new ruling that remanded but did not vacate CAIR, noting that "Allowing CAIR to remain in effect until it is replaced by a rule consistent with our opinion would at least temporarily preserve the environmental values." Source: United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 05-1244, web site www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/cair/docs/CAIRRemandOrder.pdf. This change allows the EPA to modify CAIR to address the objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision while leaving the rule in place. The change is not reflected in AEO2009.

[4] Jet Information Services, Inc.,World Jet Inventory Year-End 2006 (Utica, NY, March 2007); and personal communication from Stuart Miller (Jet Information Services).

[5] Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009, DOE/EIA-0554 (2009) (Washington, DC, February 2009), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption

[6] For gasoline blended with ethanol, the tax credit of 51 cents (nominal) per gallon of ethanol is assumed to be available for 2008. However, this tax credit is reduced to 45 cents as mandated by the “Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008” (the “Farm Bill”) starting in 2009 (the year after the annual U.S. ethanol consumption surpasses 7.5 billion gallons); the tax credit is set to expire after 2010. In addition, modeling updates include the Farm Bill’s mandated extension of the 54 cent/gallon import tariff to Dec. 31, 2010. Finally, again in accordance with the Farm Bill, a new cellulosic producer’s tax credit of $1.01/gallon is implemented in the model (valid through 2012); however, this tax credit is reduced by the aforementioned blender’s tax credit amount. Thus, in 2009 and 2010, the cellulosic producer’s tax credit is modeled as $1.01 - $0.45 = $0.56/gallon, and in 2011 and 2012 it is $1.01/gallon. http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2007/carfg07/ carfg07.htm.

[7] Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009, DOE/EIA-0554 (2009) (Washington, DC, February 2009), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption.

[8] Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009, DOE/EIA-0554 (2009) (Washington, DC, February 2009), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption

[9] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2006, 2006 IPCC Guidelines For National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program, published: IGES, Japan, 2006.