Trends in U.S. Carbon Intensity and Total Greenhouse Gas Intensity
From 2003 to 2004, the greenhouse gas intensity of the U.S. economy fell
from 677 to 662 metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP (2.1 percent),
continuing a trend of decreases in both carbon intensity (see figure at
right) and total greenhouse gas intensity. As shown in the table below,
declines in carbon intensity by decade have ranged from a low of 3.3 percent
in the 1960s to 25.6 percent in the 1980s. From 1990 to 2004, total U.S.
greenhouse gas intensity fell by 23.5 percent, at an average rate of 1.9
percent per year.
Historical Growth
Rates for U.S. Carbon Intensity
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Decade |
Overall
Change in Intensity (Percent) |
Average Annual Change in Intensity (Percent) |
Carbon Dioxide |
Total GHG |
Carbon Dioxide |
Total GHG |
| History |
| 1950-1960 |
-12.9
|
|
-1.4 |
|
1960-1970 |
-3.3 |
|
-0.3 |
|
1970-1980 |
-17.7 |
|
-1.9 |
|
| 1980-1990 |
-25.6 |
|
-2.7 |
|
1990-2000 |
-15.3 |
-17.9 |
-1.6 |
-1.9 |
|

Figure Data |
The carbon intensity and greenhouse gas intensity of the U.S. economy move
in lockstep, because carbon dioxide emissions make up most of the total
for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
represent approximately 80 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
As such, trends in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions have a significant
impact on trends in total greenhouse gas emissions. Historical trends in
U.S. carbon intensity (energy-related carbon dioxide emissions per unit
of economic output) are described below.
The carbon intensity of the economy can largely be decomposed into two
basic elements: (1) energy intensity, defined as the amount of energy consumed
per dollar of economic activity; and (2) carbon intensity of energy supply,
defined as the amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy. As illustrated
by the formulas below, the multiplication of the two elements produces
a numerical value for U.S. carbon intensity, defined as the amount of carbon
dioxide emitted per dollar of economic activity:
Energy Intensity x Carbon Intensity of Energy Supply = Carbon Intensity
of the Economy ,
or, algebraically,
(Energy/GDP) x (Carbon Emissions/Energy) =
(Carbon Emissions/GDP) .
Components of Energy Intensity. Since World War II the U.S. economy has
been moving away from traditional smokestack industries toward more service-based
or information-based enterprises. This has meant that over the second half
of the 20th century economic growth was less tied to growth in energy demand
than it was during the period of industrialization in the 19th and early
20th century. Other factors contributing to decreases in energy intensity
include:
- Improvements in the energy efficiency of industrial equipment as new materials
and methods improved performance in terms of energy inputs versus outputs
- Increased efficiency of transportation equipment as lighter materials and
more efficient engines entered the marketplace
- Improvements in commercial and residential lighting, refrigeration, and
heating and cooling equipment
- Developments in new electricity generating technologies, such as combined-cycle
turbines.
Further reductions in energy intensity, which are projected to continue,
will among other things promote deeper reductions in U.S. carbon intensity.
Components of the Carbon Intensity of Energy Supply. Changes in the carbon
intensity of energy supply have been less dramatic than changes in energy intensity. There was a slow but steady decline from 1980 until about the
mid-1990s, after which it has remained relatively unchanged. The primary
reason for the decline has been the development of nuclear power, which
is carbon-free and therefore weights the fuel mix toward lower carbon intensity.
Other factors that can decrease the carbon intensity of the energy supply
include:
- Development of new renewable resources, such as wind power, for electricity
generation
- Substitution of natural gas for coal and oil in power generation
- Transportation fuels with a higher biogenic component, such as ethanol.
Units for Measuring Greenhouse Gases
Emissions data are reported here in metric units, as favored by the international
scientific community. Metric tons are relatively intuitive for users of
English measurement units, because 1 metric ton is only about 10 percent
heavier than 1 English short ton.
Table ES1 shows emissions of greenhouse gases in terms of the full molecular
weights of the native gases. In Table ES2, and subsequently throughout
this report, emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are
given in carbon dioxide equivalents. In the case of carbon dioxide, emissions
denominated in the molecular weight of the gas or in carbon dioxide equivalents
are the same. Carbon dioxide equivalent data can be converted to carbon
equivalents by multiplying by 12/44.
Emissions of other greenhouse gases (such as methane) can also be measured
in carbon dioxide equivalent units by multiplying their emissions (in metric
tons) by their global warming potentials (GWPs). Carbon dioxide equivalents
are the amount of carbon dioxide by weight emitted into the atmosphere
that would produce the same estimated radiative forcing as a given weight
of another radiatively active gas.
Carbon dioxide equivalents are computed by multiplying the weight of the
gas being measured (for example, methane) by its estimated GWP (which is
23 for methane).
Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the U.S. Economy
The diagram on page 10 illustrates the flow of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
in 2004, from their sources to their distribution across the U.S end-use
sectors. The left side shows gases and quantities; the right side shows
their distribution by sector. The center of the diagram indicates the split
between emissions from direct fuel combustion and electricity conversion.
Adjustments indicated at the top of the diagram for U.S. territories and
international bunker fuels correspond to greenhouse gas reporting requirements
developed by the UNFCCC.
CO2. CO2 emission sources include energy-related emissions (primarily from
fossil fuel combustion) and emissions from industrial processes. The energy
subtotal (5,900 MMTCO2e) includes petroleum, coal, and natural gas consumption
and smaller amounts from renewable sources, including municipal solid waste
and geothermal power generation. The energy subtotal also includes emissions
from nonfuel uses of fossil fuels, mainly as inputs to other products.
Industrial process emissions (105 MMTCO2e) include cement manufacture,
limestone and dolomite calcination, soda ash manufacture and consumption,
carbon dioxide manufacture, and aluminum production. The sum of the energy
subtotal and industrial processes equals unadjusted CO2 emissions (6,005
MMTCO2e). The energy component of unadjusted emissions can be divided into
direct fuel use (3,601 MMTCO2e) and fuel converted to electricity (2,299
MMTCO2e).
Non-CO2Gases. Methane (639 MMTCO2e) and nitrous oxide (354 MMTCO2e) sources
include emissions related to energy, agriculture, waste management, and
industrial processes. Other gases (156 MMTCO2e) include HFCs, PFCs, and
SF6. These gases have a variety of uses in the U.S. economy, including
refrigerants, insulators, solvents, and aerosols; as etching, cleaning,
and firefighting agents; and as cover gases in various manufacturing processes.
Adjustments. In keeping with the UNFCCC, CO2 emissions from U.S. Territories
(62 MMTCO2e) are added to the U.S. total, and CO2 emissions from fuels
used for international transport (both oceangoing vessels and airplanes)
(94 MMTCO2e) are subtracted to derive total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions
(7,122 MMTCO2e).
Emissions by End-Use Sector. CO2 emissions by end-use sectors are based
on EIAs estimates of energy consumption (direct fuel use and purchased
electricity) by sector and on the attribution of industrial process emissions by sector. CO2 emissions from purchased electricity are allocated
to the end-use sectors based on their shares of total electricity sales.
Non-CO2 gases are allocated by direct emissions in those sectors plus emissions
in the electric power sector that can be attributed to the end-use sectors
based on electricity sales.
Residential emissions (1,241 MMTCO2e) include energy-related CO2 emissions
(1,225 MMTCO2e); and non-CO2 emissions (16 MMTCO2e). The non-CO2 sources
include direct methane and nitrous oxide emissions from direct fuel use.
Non-CO2 indirect emissions attributable to purchased electricity, including
methane and nitrous oxide emissions from electric power generation and
SF6 emissions related to electricity transmission and distribution, are
also included.
Commercial sector emissions (1,298 MMTCO2e) include energy-related CO2 emissions (1,035 MMTCO2e); and non-CO2 emissions (263 MMTCO2e). The non-CO2 emissions include direct emissions from landfills, wastewater treatment
plants, commercial refrigerants, and stationary combustion emissions of
methane and nitrous oxide. Non-CO2 indirect emissions attributable to purchased
electricity, including methane and nitrous oxide emissions from electric
power generation and SF6 emissions related to electricity transmission
and distribution, are also included.
 |
Industrial emissions (2,599 MMTCO2e) include CO2 emissions (1,853 MMTCO2e),
which can be broken down between stationary source combustion (1,748 MMTCO2e)
and industrial emissions (105 MMTCO2e); and non-CO2 emissions (746 MMTCO2e).
The non-CO2 direct emissions include emissions from agriculture (methane
and nitrous oxide), coal mines (methane), petroleum and natural gas pipelines
(methane), industrial process emissions (methane, nitrous oxide, HFCs,
PFCs and SF6), and direct stationary combustion emissions of methane and
nitrous oxide. Non-CO2 indirect emissions attributable to purchased electricity,
including methane and nitrous oxide emissions from electric power generation
and SF6 emissions related to electricity transmission and distribution,
are also included.
Transportation emissions (1,984 MMTCO2e) include energy-related CO2 emissions
from mobile source combustion (1,869 MMTCO2e); and non-CO2 emissions (124
MMTCO2e). The non-CO2 emissions include methane and nitrous oxide emissions
from mobile source combustion and HFC emissions from the use of refrigerants
for mobile source air-conditioning units.
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