U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC
20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 6, 2009
EIA Expects Lower Home Heating Costs This Winter
The October Short-Term Energy Outlook, released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), projects lower heating bills for U.S. consumers.
“We expect household bills for space-heating fuels will be 8 percent lower than a year ago, with the average household spending $960 in the October through March winter heating season, a decrease of $84 from last winter,” said EIA Administrator Richard Newell. “The lower bills primarily reflect lower fuel prices, although slightly milder weather than last winter will also contribute to less fuel use in many areas. We expect the largest decreases in fuel expenses in households using natural gas and propane.”
The average projections provide a broad guide to changes from last winter, but fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, the size and efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, and thermostat settings.
Key points:
- EIA expects the lower-48 States to be 1 percent warmer during the October through March winter heating season compared with last winter and 1 percent milder than the 30-year average (1971-2000), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most recent projections of heating degree-days. Regional heating degree-day projections vary widely.
- EIA projects natural gas inventories to set a new record high at the end of this year’s gas injection season (October 31), reaching more than 3.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).
- EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.31 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) this winter, down from $5.66 per Mcf last winter. The annual average spot price increases from $3.85 per Mcf in 2009 to $5.02 in 2010 with improving economic conditions.
- EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $70 per barrel this winter (October-March), a $19 increase compared with last winter. The forecast for average WTI prices rises gradually to about $75 per barrel by December 2010 as U.S. and world economic conditions improve.
- Energy prices remain volatile, reflecting uncertainty, or risk, in the market. To measure this uncertainty, this edition of the Outlook initiates reporting of confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil and natural gas futures prices using a measure of implied volatility derived from the NYMEX options markets (see Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty).
Short-Term Energy Outlook can be found at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
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The report described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in the report and press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the Department or the Administration. |
EIA Press Contact: Jonathan Cogan, (202) 586‑8719, jcogan@eia.doe.gov
EIA-2009-11
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