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U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
APRIL 23, 2004

EIA Plans New Survey to Improve the Quality and Timeliness  of Natural Gas Production Data

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in a Federal Register notice released today, announced plans for a new monthly survey of a sample of well operators.  The new survey is a key element of EIA’s strategy to improve the timeliness and quality of natural gas production data.  “The new production survey can substantially improve both the quality and timeliness of our monthly natural gas production estimates  - our goal is to have releasable numbers 60 days after the close of a report month with a sampling error at the national level in the 1% range,” said EIA Administrator Guy Caruso. 

Market participants, the financial community, the Administration, and members of Congress have all called for improvements to natural gas production data.   EIA Administrator Guy Caruso noted that natural gas markets have tightened considerably in recent years.  “Timely, high-quality production data are more important than ever to market participants.  The proposed new survey is a key part of EIA’s plan to meet this need, he said.”   

EIA carefully considered several alternatives other than a survey of well operators, including  (1) use of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 10-K and 10-Q submissions, (2) a survey of natural gas pipeline operators, and (3) use of data from natural gas processors.  The survey of well operators was found to be the only alternative that could satisfy EIA’s accuracy and timeliness requirements.

Respondent burden and the need for confidentiality were both carefully considered.  EIA estimates that a sample of approximately 250-350 respondents will be needed to obtain estimates with a sampling error of less than 1% at the national level and less than 5% for each of six regions.  Also, EIA plans to conduct the new sample survey under provisions of the Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002 (CIPSEA), which provide extremely strong protection against the disclosure of respondent data.

EIA looks forward to receiving comments from a wide range of market participants - producers, pipelines, distribution companies, consumers, the financial community, and government officials. A copy of the Federal Register notice can be can be downloaded from EIA’s website at:  http://www.eia.doe.gov/oss/EIA-914-April23-2004.pdf

The report described in this press release was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained in the report and the press release should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization.

EIA Press Contact:  National Energy Information Center, 202/586-8800

EIA-2004-05

Background on Current Approach to Estimating Monthly Natural Gas Production

Currently, the EIA issues estimates of monthly natural gas production 120 days after the close of a report month based primarily on preliminary data from the States with larger production volumes and from the Minerals Management Service (MMS), with reliance on statistical imputation techniques for the States with relatively less production. These monthly estimates have been found to match “final” values (no further revisions) to within 3% or less at the national level of aggregation. While the present 120-day information lag is a vast improvement over the timeliness of the State and MMS-provided final data, it is still too long for the information to be useful in determining near and intermediate term supplies, especially during natural gas peak demand periods. Also, a 3% error band, comparable to some monthly variations in production, is too large to accurately discern if production is rising or falling. 

Contact:

National Energy Information Center
Infoctr@eia.doe.gov
Phone:(202) 586-8800
FAX:(202) 586-0727


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