EIA Reports
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
WASHINGTON DC 20585
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 9, 1999
Renewable Portfolio Standards, Appliance Efficiency Standards
Could Reduce Projected Carbon Emissions
As the demand for energy grows, U.S. carbon emissions are projected to increase 47 percent above the 1990 level by 2020 under an assumption of no changes in Federal laws and regulations. More rapid penetration of renewable energy sources or adoption of revised appliance efficiency standards could reduce carbon emissions below those levels according to a number of alternative scenarios released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook 2000. The reference case results were released on the EIA Internet site and at a press conference on November 9, followed by the complete report today.
The Administration's proposed Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act would establish a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), requiring that 7.5 percent of electricity be generated from renewable sources other than hydroelectric facilities by 2010, continuing through 2015 when the RPS expires (sunsets). The proposed RPS establishes renewable generation credits to be traded among generators or banked for future use with the value of the credits capped at 1.5 cents per kilowatthour.
According to EIA, the RPS would likely reduce carbon emissions by 19 million metric tons in 2010 1.1 percent below the reference case projection of 1,787 million metric tons (Figure 1). Because the RPS expires in 2015, it is projected to reduce emissions by only 1 million metric tons in 2020. Extending the RPS could reduce emissions by as much as 17 and 13 million metric tons in 2010 and 2020, respectively, by providing an incentive to invest in renewable facilities for a longer period of time. These estimates could double by removing the cap because, at its proposed level, it is generally cheaper to purchase the credits than to make the investments. EIA estimates that extending the 1.5-cent-per-kilowatthour production tax credit for new wind and biomass facilities to 2020 would encourage only a slight reduction in carbon emissions due to the level of the tax credit compared to the cost of constructing renewable facilities. EIA analyzes a number of other cases, including:
- The impact of potential standards in the residential and commercial sectors is estimated by assuming that DOE revises equipment standards every 8 years, increasing the efficiency by either 10 or 20 percent beyond what is likely for the next round of standards, if technologically feasible. Cumulatively through 2020, these standards are estimated to save about 11 to 12 quadrillion Btu of energy (Figure 2). Carbon emissions would likely be reduced by about 8 million metric tons in 2010 and by 20 to 23 million metric tons in 2020. Near-term standards account for most of the savings and many technologies reach technological limits before achieving the 20-percent efficiency increase.
- Economic growth is a major determinant of both energy demand and emissions. The reference case assumes that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grows at an average rate of 2.2 percent a year through 2020. If the economy grows at a more rapid rate of 2.6 percent annually, carbon emissions would increase by 76 million metric tons in 2010 and by 147 million metric tons in 2020, compared to the reference case (Figure 3). If the economy grows at a slower rate of 1.7 percent a year, carbon emissions would be reduced by 59 million metric tons in 2010 and 128 million metric tons in 2020.
- In the reference case, more efficient energy-using technologies become available and penetrate the market through 2020. More rapid improvement in the cost and efficiencies of advanced technologies and their adoption than assumed in the reference case would lower carbon emissions by 76 million metric tons in 2010 and by 159 million metric tons in 2020, relative to the reference case (Figure 4). Technology could also develop at a slower rate than in the reference case. If the characteristics of energy-using equipment do not improve from those currently available, carbon emissions would be higher by 45 million metric tons in 2010 and by 101 million metric tons in 2020.
The Annual Energy Outlook 2000 also includes the analysis of world oil markets, gasoline regulations, nuclear retirements, and competitive pricing of electricity under alternative natural gas prices and discusses recent and proposed regulatory changes in energy markets and other current energy issues. The report can be accessed on EIA's Internet site at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/0383(2000).pdf. Printed copies of the report will be available by December 10, 1999, from the U.S. Government Printing Office (202/512-1800) or through EIA's National Energy Information Center (202/586-8800). More detailed, regional projections will be available by December 17, 1999, and the assumptions underlying the projections by January 7, 2000.
| The report described in this press release was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained in the report and the press release should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. |
EIA Program Contact: Mary J. Hutzler, 202/586-2222
EIA Press Contact: National Energy Information Center, 202/586-8800
EIA-99-30
Contact:
-
National Energy Information Center
-
-
Phone:(202) 586-8800
-
FAX:(202) 586-0727
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/press/press145.html
If you are having technical problems with this site please contact the EIA Webmaster at mailto:wmaster@eia.doe.gov
|
