Table A3. Probabilities for Various Levels of 2009
Shut-in Gulf of Mexico Natural Gas Production
|
Probability of Shut-in Production |
|
Billion Cubic Feet |
More Than |
Less Than |
0 |
95.0% |
5.0% |
1 |
94.2% |
5.8% |
2 |
93.3% |
6.7% |
3 |
92.0% |
8.0% |
4 |
91.0% |
9.0% |
5 |
89.5% |
10.5% |
6 |
88.3% |
11.7% |
7 |
87.0% |
13.0% |
8 |
85.5% |
14.5% |
9 |
84.1% |
15.9% |
10 |
82.6% |
17.4% |
15 |
74.7% |
25.3% |
20 |
67.3% |
32.7% |
25 |
60.9% |
39.1% |
30 |
55.7% |
44.3% |
35 |
51.1% |
48.9% |
40 |
46.9% |
53.1% |
45 |
43.9% |
56.1% |
50 |
41.1% |
58.9% |
75 |
32.7% |
67.3% |
100 |
28.4% |
71.6% |
125 |
24.6% |
75.4% |
150 |
21.1% |
78.9% |
175 |
17.9% |
82.1% |
200 |
14.8% |
85.2% |
225 |
12.0% |
88.0% |
250 |
9.4% |
90.6% |
275 |
7.7% |
92.3% |
300 |
6.0% |
94.0% |
325 |
4.7% |
95.3% |
350 |
3.7% |
96.3% |
400 |
2.4% |
97.6% |
450 |
1.3% |
98.7% |
500 |
0.7% |
99.3% |
550 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
600 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
Source: EIA Monte Carlo simulation. |
||
Energy Information Administration, The 2009 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico, June 2009