Table A2. Probabilities for Various Levels of 2009
Shut-in Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil Production
|
Probability of Shut-in Production |
|
Million Barrels |
More Than |
Less Than |
0 |
95.9% |
4.1% |
0.5 |
91.7% |
8.3% |
1 |
85.7% |
14.3% |
1.5 |
78.7% |
21.3% |
2 |
72.3% |
27.7% |
2.5 |
66.7% |
33.3% |
3 |
61.6% |
38.4% |
3.5 |
57.2% |
42.8% |
4 |
53.4% |
46.6% |
4.5 |
50.2% |
49.8% |
5 |
47.4% |
52.6% |
6 |
42.7% |
57.3% |
7 |
39.0% |
61.0% |
8 |
36.5% |
63.5% |
9 |
34.7% |
65.3% |
10 |
33.1% |
66.9% |
11 |
31.9% |
68.1% |
12 |
30.8% |
69.2% |
13 |
29.9% |
70.1% |
14 |
29.0% |
71.0% |
15 |
28.1% |
71.9% |
16 |
27.3% |
72.7% |
17 |
26.4% |
73.6% |
18 |
25.4% |
74.6% |
19 |
24.4% |
75.6% |
20 |
23.5% |
76.5% |
25 |
19.3% |
80.7% |
30 |
15.4% |
84.6% |
35 |
12.3% |
87.7% |
40 |
9.3% |
90.7% |
45 |
7.1% |
92.9% |
50 |
5.2% |
94.8% |
60 |
2.7% |
97.3% |
70 |
1.4% |
98.6% |
80 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
90 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
100 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
Source: EIA Monte Carlo simulation |
||
Energy Information Administration, The 2009 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico, June 2009