Table 2. Simulated Cumulative Shut-in Production for 2009 Hurricane Season
Crude Oil (million barrels) |
|
Natural Gas (billion cubic feet) |
||
Mean |
12.9 |
|
Mean |
85.6 |
50th Percentile (Median) |
4.5 |
|
50th Percentile (Median) |
36.4 |
90th Percentile |
38.6 |
|
90th Percentile |
241.7 |
95th Percentile |
50.7 |
|
95th Percentile |
318.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Outage Scenario Probabilities |
|
Outage Scenario Probabilities |
||
P(No Shut-In) |
0.0409 |
|
P(No Shut-In) |
0.0503 |
P(> 25 MMbbl Shut-in) |
0.1930 |
|
P(> 150 Bcf Shut-in) |
0.2110 |
P(> 50 MMbbl Shut-in) |
0.0520 |
|
P(> 300 Bcf Shut-in) |
0.0600 |
P(> 100 MMbbl Shut-in) |
0.0030 |
|
P(> 600 Bcf Shut-in) |
0.0030 |
MMbbl = million barrels. Bcf = billion cubic feet. Source: EIA calculations. |
||||
Energy Information Administration, The 2009 Outlook for Hurricane Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico, June 2009