Table 2. Simulated Cumulative Shut-in Production for 2008 Hurricane Season
Crude Oil (million barrels) |
Natural Gas (billion cubic feet) |
|||
Mean |
21.0 |
Mean |
129.4 |
|
50th Percent (Median) |
11.3 |
50th Percent (Median) |
78.4 |
|
90th Percentile |
53.1 |
90th Percentile |
319.6 |
|
95th Percentile |
67.5 |
95th Percentile |
392.4 |
|
Outage Scenario Probabilities |
Outage Scenario Probabilities |
|||
P(No Shut-In) |
0.0167 |
P(No Shut-In) |
0.0230 |
|
P(> 25 MMbbls Shut-in) |
0.3370 |
P(> 150 Bcf Shut-in) |
0.3430 |
|
P(> 50 MMbbls Shut-in) |
0.1180 |
P(> 300 Bcf Shut-in) |
0.1200 |
|
P(> 100 MMbbls Shut-in) |
0.0090 |
P(> 600 Bcf Shut-in) |
0.0086 |
|
| Source: EIA calculations | ||||