Table 2.  Simulated Cumulative Shut-in Production for 2008 Hurricane Season

Crude Oil (million barrels)

 

Natural Gas (billion cubic feet)

Mean

21.0

 

Mean

129.4

50th Percent (Median)

11.3

 

50th Percent (Median)

78.4

90th Percentile

53.1

 

90th Percentile

319.6

95th Percentile

67.5

 

95th Percentile

392.4

         

Outage Scenario Probabilities

 

Outage Scenario Probabilities

P(No Shut-In)

0.0167

 

P(No Shut-In)

0.0230

P(> 25 MMbbls Shut-in)

0.3370

 

P(> 150 Bcf Shut-in)

0.3430

P(> 50 MMbbls Shut-in)

0.1180

 

P(> 300 Bcf Shut-in)

0.1200

P(> 100 MMbbls Shut-in)

0.0090

 

P(> 600 Bcf Shut-in)

0.0086

  Source: EIA calculations