Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2009, fall by 5.9 percent in 2009 compared with 2008 (Table 1).  Coal accounts for 63 percent of the total decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels this year.  Projected coal CO₂ emissions fall by 10.1 percent in 2009, primarily because of lower consumption for electricity generation.  Forecast lower natural gas and petroleum emissions this year make up 7 percent and 30 percent of the projected total decline in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, respectively.

A decline in coal, natural gas, and electricity consumption in the industrial sector, a result of the weak economy, accounts for 140 million metric tons, or about 40 percent, of the total projected reduction in CO₂ emissions. Industrial activity, including manufacturing, is disproportionately impacted by the economic downturn, with the index of manufacturing activity forecast to decline by 11.5 percent in 2009, considerably more than the 2.5-percent forecast decline in real gross domestic product (GDP).

Forecast coal, natural gas, and electricity consumption in the commercial and residential sectors is also lower this year because of the weak economy, a slightly warmer winter, and milder summer. We expect CO₂ emissions from the commercial and residential sectors to be 29 million metric tons lower in 2009, or just over 8 percent of the total projected reduction in CO₂ emissions this year.

Projected reductions in CO₂ emissions associated with changes in the electricity generation mix reflect both increases in emission-free generation from hydropower, wind, and nuclear power and, with substantially lower natural gas prices, decisions by some electricity suppliers to back out some coal generation in favor of natural gas generation. Low industrial demand for natural gas is among the factors contributing to lower natural gas prices, so part of the change in the electricity generation mix, which accounts for 73 million metric tons, or about 20 percent, of the total projected decline in CO₂ emissions, is indirectly related to the decline in industrial activity.

The decline in CO₂ emissions from petroleum consumption, which occurs primarily in economy-related reductions in jet fuel and distillate fuel consumption, accounts for the other 30 percent of the forecast reduction in CO₂ emissions.

Additional discussion of the forecast for CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in 2009, and its composition, is provided in the full report.