Energy Price Model Variable Definitions

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Energy Prices Model Variable Definitions

Related Energy Prices Model Documentation

Variable Name Units Definition Source

History Forecast

AFUEUUS FRAC Weighted cost: fossil fuels to electric utilities EPM STF

CICPIUS Index Consumer Price Index BLS DRI

CLEUDUS DMMB Cost of coal to electric utilities EPM STF

CLMRHUS TMHR Miner productivity COAL STF

D_294 INT = 1 if February 1994, 0 otherwise (Ice storms) — —

D_HAND INT = 1 if Sep-Oct 1992, 0 otherwise (Hurricane Andrew) — —

D2RCUUS CPG Residential heating oil price PMM STF

D2WHUUS CPG Refiner distillate fuel oil price PMM STF

D9001 INT = 1 if January 1990, 0 otherwise (cold winter) — —

D94MJ INT = 1 if May or June 1994, 0 otherwise (low stocks for gasoline) — —

D95ON INT = 1 if January 1995 or later, 0 otherwise — —

DFPSPUSA MMB Stocks of distillate fuel oil, deseasonalized PSM STF

DFTCPUS MMBD Distillate fuel oil demand PSM STF

DSRTUUS CPG Diesel Fuel Oil Price, Inc Tax PMM STF

DSTCUUS CPG Diesel Fuel Oil Price, Ex- tax PMM STF

DSTXFUS CPG Federal diesel tax PMM STF

DSTXSUS CPG State diesel tax PMM STF

DSTXUUS CPG Total Diesel tax PMM STF

DUM9602 INT = 1 if February 1996, 0 otherwise (Low gas storage) — —

ESRCUUS CKWH Residential electricity price EPM STF

GASVAR BCFD Natural gas stocks difference from "normal" STF STF

JKTCUUS CPG Kerosene jet fuel price PMM STF

MGEIAUS CPG Gasoline price, All grades/self service, retail WPS STF

MGEIRUS CPG Gasoline price, regular/self service, retail WPS STF

MGPSPUSA MMB Stocks of motor gasoline, deseasonalized PSM STF

MGTC1US CPG Gasoline price, regular/self service, retail, ex-tax (mgeirus-mgtxuus) WPS STF

MGTC2US CPG Gasoline price, all grades/self service, retail, ex-tax (mgeiaus-mgtxuus) WPS STF

MGTCAUS CPG Retail motor gasoline, all grades/services BLS STF

MGTCPUXA MMBD Demand for motor gasoline, deseasonalized PSM STF

MGTXFUS CPG Federal gasoline tax PMM STF

MGTXSUS CPG State gasoline tax PMM STF

MGTXUUS CPG Total gasoline tax PMM STF

MGUCUUS CPG Gasoline price, All grades/all services, retail BLS STF

MGWHUUS CPG Refiner gasoline price PMM STF

MGWHUUSX CPG Refiner motor gasoline price, less MBTE costs PMM STF

NGCCUUS DMCF Commercial sector natural gas price NGM STF

NGEUDUS DMMB Electric utility sector natural gas price NGM STF

NGICUUS DMCF Industrial sector natural gas price NGM STF

NGRCUUS DMCF Residential sector natural gas price NGM STF

NGSPUUS DMMB Spot wellhead natural gas price NGW STF

NGWPUUS DMCF Composite wellhead natural gas price NGM STF

OPFRAC FRAC Oxygenated-reformulated (OPRG) gasoline share of total gasoline demand PSM EXO

OXFRAC FRAC Oxygenated gasoline share of total gasoline demand PSM EXO

PRRCUUS CPG Propane residential price PMM STF

PRTCUUS CPG Consumer grade propane price PMM STF

QCOAL BBTU Elec gen from coal * its heat rate, CLEOPUS * CLEOKUS EPM EXO

QNGAS BBTU Elec gen from gas * its heat rate, NGEOPUS * NGEOKUS EPM STF

QRESD BBTU Elec gen from residual fuel * its heat rate, RFEOPUS * RFEOKUS EPM STF

RACPUUS DBBL Refiner average crude oil acquisition cost PMM EXO

RAIMUUS DBBL Refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil PMM EXO

RFEUDUS DMMB Cost of residual fuel oil to electric utilities EPM STF

RFFRAC FRAC Reformulated gasoline share of total gasoline demand PSM EXO

RFPSPUS MMB Stocks of residual fuel oil PSM STF

RFTCPUS MMBD Residual fuel oil demand PSM STF

RFTCUUS CPG Retail residual fuel price PMM STF

WP57IUS IND Producer Price Index - fuels and power BLS STF

WPIINUS IND Producer Price Index petroleum products BLS DRI

ZGHDPUS HDD Gas-weighted heating degree days NOAA ROT

ZGHNPUS HDD "Normal" (1965-1999 average with trend) gas-weighted heating degree days STF STF

ZSAJQUS INT Number of days in month — —

Units Key

BBTU Billion Btu

BCFD Billion cubic feet per day

CKWH Cents per kilowatthour

CPG Cents per gallon

DBBL Dollars per barrel

DMCF Dollars per thousand cubic feet

DMMB Dollars per million Btu

FRAC Fraction

HDD Heating-degree days

INDX Index

INT Positive Integer

MMB Million barrels

MMBD Million barrels per day

TMHR Tons per miner hour

Source Key

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Survey

COAL Energy Information Administration; Coal Productivity, DOE/EIA-0118

DRI DRI / McGraw-Hill Macroeconomic Forecast

EPA Enviromental Protection Agency estimates

EPM Energy Information Administration; Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226

EXO EXOenous variable

NGM Energy Information Administration; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130

NGW Natural Gas Week

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monthly State, Regional and
National Heating/Cooling Degree-Days Weighted by Population

PMM Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380

PSM Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109

ROT "Rule of Thumb" - in the forecast, these variables are assumed to remain constant (e.g., equal to the last available historical data.) For heating degree-days, the forecasts assume normal weather (1965-1999 average with trend).

STF Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System calculation

WPS Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208

File last modified: July 21, 2000

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Variable Name	Units	Definition	Source
Variable Name	Units	Definition	History	Forecast
AFUEUUS	FRAC	Weighted cost: fossil fuels to electric utilities	EPM	STF
CICPIUS	Index	Consumer Price Index	BLS	DRI
CLEUDUS	DMMB	Cost of coal to electric utilities	EPM	STF
CLMRHUS	TMHR	Miner productivity	COAL	STF
D_294	INT	= 1 if February 1994, 0 otherwise (Ice storms)	—	—
D_HAND	INT	= 1 if Sep-Oct 1992, 0 otherwise (Hurricane Andrew)	—	—
D2RCUUS	CPG	Residential heating oil price	PMM	STF
D2WHUUS	CPG	Refiner distillate fuel oil price	PMM	STF
D9001	INT	= 1 if January 1990, 0 otherwise (cold winter)	—	—
D94MJ	INT	= 1 if May or June 1994, 0 otherwise (low stocks for gasoline)	—	—
D95ON	INT	= 1 if January 1995 or later, 0 otherwise	—	—
DFPSPUSA	MMB	Stocks of distillate fuel oil, deseasonalized	PSM	STF
DFTCPUS	MMBD	Distillate fuel oil demand	PSM	STF
DSRTUUS	CPG	Diesel Fuel Oil Price, Inc Tax	PMM	STF
DSTCUUS	CPG	Diesel Fuel Oil Price, Ex- tax	PMM	STF
DSTXFUS	CPG	Federal diesel tax	PMM	STF
DSTXSUS	CPG	State diesel tax	PMM	STF
DSTXUUS	CPG	Total Diesel tax	PMM	STF
DUM9602	INT	= 1 if February 1996, 0 otherwise (Low gas storage)	—	—
ESRCUUS	CKWH	Residential electricity price	EPM	STF
GASVAR	BCFD	Natural gas stocks difference from "normal"	STF	STF
JKTCUUS	CPG	Kerosene jet fuel price	PMM	STF
MGEIAUS	CPG	Gasoline price, All grades/self service, retail	WPS	STF
MGEIRUS	CPG	Gasoline price, regular/self service, retail	WPS	STF
MGPSPUSA	MMB	Stocks of motor gasoline, deseasonalized	PSM	STF
MGTC1US	CPG	Gasoline price, regular/self service, retail, ex-tax (mgeirus-mgtxuus)	WPS	STF
MGTC2US	CPG	Gasoline price, all grades/self service, retail, ex-tax (mgeiaus-mgtxuus)	WPS	STF
MGTCAUS	CPG	Retail motor gasoline, all grades/services	BLS	STF
MGTCPUXA	MMBD	Demand for motor gasoline, deseasonalized	PSM	STF
MGTXFUS	CPG	Federal gasoline tax	PMM	STF
MGTXSUS	CPG	State gasoline tax	PMM	STF
MGTXUUS	CPG	Total gasoline tax	PMM	STF
MGUCUUS	CPG	Gasoline price, All grades/all services, retail	BLS	STF
MGWHUUS	CPG	Refiner gasoline price	PMM	STF
MGWHUUSX	CPG	Refiner motor gasoline price, less MBTE costs	PMM	STF
NGCCUUS	DMCF	Commercial sector natural gas price	NGM	STF
NGEUDUS	DMMB	Electric utility sector natural gas price	NGM	STF
NGICUUS	DMCF	Industrial sector natural gas price	NGM	STF
NGRCUUS	DMCF	Residential sector natural gas price	NGM	STF
NGSPUUS	DMMB	Spot wellhead natural gas price	NGW	STF
NGWPUUS	DMCF	Composite wellhead natural gas price	NGM	STF
OPFRAC	FRAC	Oxygenated-reformulated (OPRG) gasoline share of total gasoline demand	PSM	EXO
OXFRAC	FRAC	Oxygenated gasoline share of total gasoline demand	PSM	EXO
PRRCUUS	CPG	Propane residential price	PMM	STF
PRTCUUS	CPG	Consumer grade propane price	PMM	STF
QCOAL	BBTU	Elec gen from coal * its heat rate, CLEOPUS * CLEOKUS	EPM	EXO
QNGAS	BBTU	Elec gen from gas * its heat rate, NGEOPUS * NGEOKUS	EPM	STF
QRESD	BBTU	Elec gen from residual fuel * its heat rate, RFEOPUS * RFEOKUS	EPM	STF
RACPUUS	DBBL	Refiner average crude oil acquisition cost	PMM	EXO
RAIMUUS	DBBL	Refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil	PMM	EXO
RFEUDUS	DMMB	Cost of residual fuel oil to electric utilities	EPM	STF
RFFRAC	FRAC	Reformulated gasoline share of total gasoline demand	PSM	EXO
RFPSPUS	MMB	Stocks of residual fuel oil	PSM	STF
RFTCPUS	MMBD	Residual fuel oil demand	PSM	STF
RFTCUUS	CPG	Retail residual fuel price	PMM	STF
WP57IUS	IND	Producer Price Index - fuels and power	BLS	STF
WPIINUS	IND	Producer Price Index petroleum products	BLS	DRI
ZGHDPUS	HDD	Gas-weighted heating degree days	NOAA	ROT
ZGHNPUS	HDD	"Normal" (1965-1999 average with trend) gas-weighted heating degree days	STF	STF
ZSAJQUS	INT	Number of days in month	—	—
Units Key
BBTU	Billion Btu
BCFD	Billion cubic feet per day
CKWH	Cents per kilowatthour
CPG	Cents per gallon
DBBL	Dollars per barrel
DMCF	Dollars per thousand cubic feet
DMMB	Dollars per million Btu
FRAC	Fraction
HDD	Heating-degree days
INDX	Index
INT	Positive Integer
MMB	Million barrels
MMBD	Million barrels per day
TMHR	Tons per miner hour
Source Key
BLS	Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Survey
COAL	Energy Information Administration; Coal Productivity, DOE/EIA-0118
DRI	DRI / McGraw-Hill Macroeconomic Forecast
EPA	Enviromental Protection Agency estimates
EPM	Energy Information Administration; Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226
EXO	EXOenous variable
NGM	Energy Information Administration; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130
NGW	Natural Gas Week
NOAA	National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monthly State, Regional and National Heating/Cooling Degree-Days Weighted by Population
PMM	Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380
PSM	Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109
ROT	"Rule of Thumb" - in the forecast, these variables are assumed to remain constant (e.g., equal to the last available historical data.) For heating degree-days, the forecasts assume normal weather (1965-1999 average with trend).
STF	Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System calculation
WPS	Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208