Electricity Model Regression Results

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Electricity Model Regression Results

Table

TDLOFUS - Transmission and Distribution Losses/Total Demand
ESOTPUSQ - "Other" Electricity Demand
WWEOPUS - Electricity Generated by Wood and Waste
ESRCPUSQ - Residential Electricity Demand Share
ESCMPUSQ - Commercial Electricity Demand Share
GEEOPUS - Electricity Generated by Geothermal Power
WNEOPUS - Electricity Generated by Wind, Solar, and Other
ESICPUS - Industrial Electricity Demand
CLEOPUSX - Electricity Generated by Coal
NGEOPUSX - Electricity Generated by Natural Gas

Related Electricity Model Documentation

Table 1. TDLOFUS (Ratio - unitless)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

TDLOFUS 14 204 0.05867 0.0002876 0.01696 0.8172 0.8055 1.978

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

PTND_01 -0.117982 0.0041599 -28.4 Constant coefficient

PTND_17 0.008384 0.0020218 4.15 D89ON

PTND_06 0.027174 0.0059959 4.53 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

PTND_07 0.087132 0.0055772 15.6 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

PTND_08 0.026833 0.0057110 4.70 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

PTND_09 0.049169 0.0057041 8.62 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

PTND_10 -0.010445 0.0057052 -1.83 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

PTND_11 -0.006268 0.0057051 -1.10 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

PTND_12 -0.010095 0.0057053 -1.77 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

PTND_13 0.016875 0.0057041 2.96 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

PTND_14 0.097022 0.0057126 17.0 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

PTND_15 0.044954 0.0056505 7.96 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

PTND_16 0.020316 0.0060859 3.34 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

TDLOFUS_L1 -0.138013 0.0694200 -1.99 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1980 through February 1998

Table 2. "Other" Electricity Demand, ESOTPUSQ (billion kilowatthours per day per real $GDP)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

ESOTPUSQ 14 168 0.0003259 1.93974E-06 0.0013927 0.8315 0.8185 2.424

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

ESOT_01 0.042254 0.0009033 46.8 Constant coefficient

ESOT_D1 -0.002870 0.0010046 -2.86 D90ON

ESOT_06 0.001257 0.0003517 3.57 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

ESOT_07 0.003184 0.0004612 6.90 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

ESOT_08 -0.000945 0.0005344 -1.77 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

ESOT_09 -0.001031 0.0005797 -1.78 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

ESOT_10 -0.001300 0.0006046 -2.15 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

ESOT_11 0.001673 0.0006125 2.73 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

ESOT_12 0.002469 0.0006044 4.08 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

ESOT_13 0.002671 0.0005796 4.61 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

ESOT_14 0.003468 0.0005350 6.48 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

ESOT_15 0.0000535 0.0004638 0.12 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

ESOT_16 0.0000764 0.0003472 0.22 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

ESOTPUSQ_L1 0.854837 0.0435200 19.6 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1983 through February 1998

Table 3. Electricity Generated by Wood and Waste, WWEOPUS (billion kilowatthours per day)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

WWEOPUS 14 144 0.0000348 2.41568E-07 0.0004915 0.7630 0.7416 2.094

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

WWEO_01 0.004694 0.0002681 17.5 Constant coefficient

WWEO_D1 0.000825 0.0002931 2.81 D90ON

WWEO_06 -0.000166 0.0001454 -1.14 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

WWEO_07 -0.000371 0.0001877 -1.98 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

WWEO_08 -0.000488 0.0002152 -2.27 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

WWEO_09 -0.000735 0.0002312 -3.18 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

WWEO_10 -0.000980 0.0002396 -4.09 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

WWEO_11 -0.000495 0.0002422 -2.04 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

WWEO_12 -0.000202 0.0002394 -0.84 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

WWEO_13 0.000136 0.0002310 0.59 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

WWEO_14 0.00000885 0.0002155 0.04 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

WWEO_15 0.0000571 0.0001895 0.30 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

WWEO_16 0.0000493 0.0001445 0.34 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

WWEOPUS_L1 0.749697 0.0578100 13.0 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1985 through February 1998

Table 4. Residential Electricity Demand, ESRCPUSQ (Billion kilowatt-hours/day/household)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

ESRCPUSQ 19 115 0.0000368 3.20163E-07 0.0005658 0.9779 0.9744 1.917

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

ESRC_01 0.021193 0.0004819 44.0 Constant coefficient

ESRC_03 0.000208 0.0000293 7.11 ZWHDPUS*(OCT...APR)

ESRC_04 0.000889 0.0001022 8.70 ZWCDPUS*(MAY...SEP)

ESRC_031 0.000202 0.0000295 6.83 LAG(ZWHD*(OCT...APR))

ESRC_041 0.000552 0.0001022 5.41 LAG(ZWCD*(MAY...SEP))

ESRC_05W 0.0000210 0.00000209 10.1 Winter Trend

ESRC_05S 0.0000309 0.00000258 12.0 Summer trend

ESRC_06 0.004011 0.0002211 18.1 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

ESRC_07 0.002926 0.0002555 11.45 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

ESRC_08 -0.001676 0.0002561 -6.54 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

ESRC_09 -0.004277 0.0002519 -17.0 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

ESRC_10 -0.007861 0.0007007 -11.2 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

ESRC_11 -0.003616 0.0007064 -5.12 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

ESRC_12 0.000951 0.0007106 1.34 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

ESRC_13 0.001254 0.0007111 1.76 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

ESRC_14 -0.001211 0.0007081 -1.71 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

ESRC_15 -0.004379 0.0002426 -18.0 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

ESRC_16 -0.003945 0.0002163 -18.2 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

ESRCPUSQ_L1 0.268438 0.09038 2.97 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1987 through February 1998

Table 5. Commercial Electricity Demand, ESCMPUSQ (Billion kilowatt-hours/day/employee)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

ESCMPUSQ 19 115 0.0000116 1.01289E-07 0.0003183 0.9840 0.9815 2.053

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

ESCM_01 0.015073 0.00148 10.2 Constant coefficient

ESCM_02L 0.000103 0.0000143 7.23 TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation (LINEAR)

ESCM_02Q -0.000000201 0.000000034 -5.98 TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation (QUADRATIC)

ESCM_04 0.0000889 0.0000164 5.43 ZWHDPUS*(OCT...APR)

ESCM_041 0.0000497 0.0000164 3.02 LAG(ZWHD*(OCT...APR))

ESCM_05 0.000486 0.0000572 8.49 ZWCDPUS*(MAY...SEP)

ESCM_051 0.000139 0.0000572 2.44 LAG(ZWCD*(MAY...SEP))

ESCM_06 0.001114 0.0001198 9.30 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

ESCM_07 0.002091 0.0001443 14.5 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

ESCM_08 -0.000602 0.0001476 -4.08 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

ESCM_09 -0.000710 0.0001469 -4.83 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

ESCM_10 -0.000617 0.0001472 -4.19 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

ESCM_11 0.003254 0.0001486 21.9 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

ESCM_12 0.004776 0.0001492 32.0 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

ESCM_13 0.004978 0.0001476 33.7 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

ESCM_14 0.004357 0.0001439 30.3 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

ESCM_15 0.000751 0.0001363 5.51 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

ESCM_16 -0.000260 0.0001159 -2.24 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

ESCMPUSQ_L1 0.398874 0.08585 4.65 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1987 through February 1998

Table 6. Electricity Generated by Geothermal Power, GEEOPUS (billion kilowatthours per day)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

GEEOPUS 3 131 0.0004027 3.07399E-06 0.0017533 0.9027 0.9012 2.101

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

GEEO_01 -2.558274 0.11737 -21.8 Constant coefficient

GEEO_02 -0.006276 0.0005890 -10.6 TIME = 1 to n, where n = number of observation

GEEOPUS_L1 0.666502 0.06429 10.4 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1987 through February 1998

Table 7. Electricity Generated by Wind, Solar, and Other, WNEOPUS (billion kilowatthours per day)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

WNEOPUS 14 60 2.39245E-09 3.9874E-11 6.3146E-06 0.9300 0.9148 2.347

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

WNEO_01 0.00000571 0.00000317 1.80 Constant coefficient

WNEO_D1 8.04504 6.57244 1.22 D9505ON

WNEO_06 -0.000000008 0.000000411 -0.02 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

WNEO_07 0.000000384 0.000000622 0.62 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

WNEO_08 0.00000175 0.00000149 1.18 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

WNEO_09 0.00000357 0.00000275 1.29 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

WNEO_10 0.00000487 0.00000370 1.32 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

WNEO_11 0.00000610 0.00000456 1.34 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

WNEO_12 0.00000667 0.00000496 1.35 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

WNEO_13 0.00000550 0.00000410 1.34 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

WNEO_14 0.00000436 0.00000327 1.33 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

WNEO_15 0.00000241 0.00000187 1.29 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

WNEO_16 0.000000483 0.000000559 0.86 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

WNEOPUS_L1 0.758753 0.08616 8.81 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction
Estimation period: January 1992 through February 1998

Table 8. Industrial Electricity Demand, ESICPUS (billion kilowatthours per day)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

ESICPUS 18 80 0.05203 0.0006503 0.02550 0.9699 0.9635 1.511

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

ESIC_01 1.434574 0.06774 21.2 Constant coefficient

ESIC_Q 0.569114 0.07018 8.11 ZOMNIUS

ESIC_Q2 0.510327 0.12640 4.04 ZO26IUS

ESIC_H1 0.004958 0.00169 2.93 HDD DEVS

ESIC_C1 0.008916 0.00519 1.72 CDD DEVS

ESIC_D1 0.031070 0.00900 3.45 D92

ESIC_D2 0.029912 0.00940 3.18 D94

ESIC_06 -0.014955 0.01251 -1.20 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

ESIC_07 0.191429 0.01252 15.3 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

ESIC_08 0.005148 0.01289 0.40 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

ESIC_09 0.067403 0.01306 5.16 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

ESIC_10 0.082838 0.01302 6.36 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

ESIC_11 0.241383 0.01304 18.5 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

ESIC_12 0.152588 0.01300 11.7 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

ESIC_13 0.227527 0.01298 17.5 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

ESIC_14 0.239165 0.01297 18.4 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

ESIC_15 0.131305 0.01297 10.1 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

ESIC_16 0.111625 0.01342 8.32 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

Method of estimation: OLS
Estimation period: January 1990 through February 1998

Table 9. Electricity Generated by Coal, CLEOPUSX (billion kilowatthours per day)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

CLEOPUSX 20.5 64.5 0.10487 0.0016258 0.04032 0.9919 0.9894 1.946

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

CLEO_0 -0.173943 0.34074 -0.51 Constant term

CLEO_CL -0.579139 0.13077 -4.43 Coeff. of (CLEUDUS/RFEUDUS)

CLEO_NG 0.230324 0.05697 4.04 Coeff. of (NGEUDUS/RFEUDUS)

CLEO_E 0.627153 0.02499 25.09 Coeff. of ELEOPUS

CLEO_EW 0.172859 0.03305 5.23 Coeff. For incremental impact of ELEOPUS in fall/winter compared to spring/

CLEO_N -0.605199 0.08631 -7.01 Coeff. Of NUEOPUS

CLEO_H -0.521804 0.15964 -3.27 Coeff. Of HYEOPUS

CLEO_HP -0.572061 0.14345 -3.99 Coeff. Of HYEOPAC

CLEO_G -2.012668 2.46882 -0.82 Coeff. of GEEOPUS

CLEO_01 -0.016996 0.01994 -0.85 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

CLEO_02 0.000508 0.02442 0.02 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

CLEO_03 -0.045807 0.03908 -1.17 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

CLEO_04 -0.059558 0.05048 -1.18 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

CLEO_05 1.159463 0.26624 4.35 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

CLEO_06 1.205182 0.27500 4.38 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

CLEO_07 1.181284 0.28013 4.22 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

CLEO_08 1.181764 0.27712 4.26 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

CLEO_09 1.184012 0.26574 4.46 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

CLEO_10 -0.065772 0.03748 -1.76 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

CLEO_11 -0.009261 0.02467 -0.38 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

CLEOPUSX_L1 0.537806 0.10566 5.09 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: Iterated Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) with 1st-order autocorrelation correction (jointly with NGEOPUSX)
Estimation period: January 1991 through January 1998

Table 10. Electricity Generated by Natural Gas, NGEOPUSX (billion kilowatthours per day)

Equation DF Model DF Error SSE MSE Root MSE R-Square Adj R-Sq Durbin-Watson

NGEOPUSX 20.5 64.5 0.09556 0.0014816 0.03849 0.9782 0.9716 2.042

Parameter Estimate Approx. Std. Err. 'T' Ratio Label

NGEO_0 0.519723 0.30769 1.69

NGEO_NG -0.255480 0.05393 -4.74

NGEO_E 0.290337 0.02382 12.2

NGEO_EW -0.197862 0.03087 -6.41

NGEO_N -0.136031 0.08023 -1.70

NGEO_H -0.144970 0.15049 -0.96

NGEO_HP -0.452389 0.12875 -3.51

NGEO_G -4.455987 2.33792 -1.91

NGEO_01 -0.027836 0.01875 -1.48 JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise

NGEO_02 -0.031234 0.02239 -1.39 FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise

NGEO_03 0.065746 0.03648 1.80 MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise

NGEO_04 0.115073 0.04749 2.42 APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise

NGEO_05 -1.305135 0.24912 -5.24 MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise

NGEO_06 -1.373434 0.25775 -5.33 JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise

NGEO_07 -1.361641 0.26263 -5.18 JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise

NGEO_08 -1.337162 0.25976 -5.15 AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise

NGEO_09 -1.329916 0.24847 -5.35 SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise

NGEO_10 0.146385 0.03521 4.16 OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise

NGEO_11 0.058146 0.02333 2.49 NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise

NGEOPUSX_L1 0.471363 0.11047 4.27 1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter

Method of estimation: Iterated Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) with 1st-order autocorrelation correction (jointly with CLEOPUSX)
Estimation period: January 1991 through January 1998

File last modified: August 13, 1998

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Equation	DF Model	DF Error	SSE	MSE	Root MSE	R-Square	Adj R-Sq	Durbin-Watson
TDLOFUS	14	204	0.05867	0.0002876	0.01696	0.8172	0.8055	1.978

Parameter	Estimate	Approx. Std. Err.	'T' Ratio	Label
PTND_01	-0.117982	0.0041599	-28.4	Constant coefficient
PTND_17	0.008384	0.0020218	4.15	D89ON
PTND_06	0.027174	0.0059959	4.53	JAN = 1 if January, 0 otherwise
PTND_07	0.087132	0.0055772	15.6	FEB = 1 if February, 0 otherwise
PTND_08	0.026833	0.0057110	4.70	MAR = 1 if March, 0 otherwise
PTND_09	0.049169	0.0057041	8.62	APR = 1 if April, 0 otherwise
PTND_10	-0.010445	0.0057052	-1.83	MAY = 1 if May, 0 otherwise
PTND_11	-0.006268	0.0057051	-1.10	JUN = 1 if June, 0 otherwise
PTND_12	-0.010095	0.0057053	-1.77	JUL = 1 if July, 0 otherwise
PTND_13	0.016875	0.0057041	2.96	AUG = 1 if August, 0 otherwise
PTND_14	0.097022	0.0057126	17.0	SEP = 1 if September, 0 otherwise
PTND_15	0.044954	0.0056505	7.96	OCT = 1 if October, 0 otherwise
PTND_16	0.020316	0.0060859	3.34	NOV = 1 if November, 0 otherwise
TDLOFUS_L1	-0.138013	0.0694200	-1.99	1st-order autocorrelation correction parameter
Method of estimation: OLS with 1st-order autocorrelation correction Estimation period: January 1980 through February 1998