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For the time being, EIA is assuming that the flow of Iraqi oil exports has been stopped, resulting in a gross Middle Eastern oil supply disruption of around 1.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d). Meanwhile, Nigeria is experiencing a gross oil supply disruption of about 160,000 barrels per day. In total, around 2.06 million bbl/d of oil production from Iraq and Nigeria is currently offline, with remaining OPEC spare production capacity estimated at 0.7-1.2 million bbl/d.

Major Gross Oil Supply Disruptions (million barrels per day)

3/19/03

Latest (5/1/03)

Middle East*

1.8

1.9

Nigeria

0.0

0.16

TOTAL

1.8

2.06

*The Middle Eastern gross oil supply disruption is based on the loss of Iraqi exports from the UN "oil-for-food" program, which averaged 1.73 million bbl/d in February 2003, plus around 200,000 bbl/d of "illegal" oil exports through Syria and Jordan. As of March 31, Shell has restarted the 60,000-bbl/d Soroosh oil field in Iran's northern Gulf, reducing the gross oil supply disruption by that amount. Soroosh had been closed since just prior to the outbreak of war with Iraq.

World Oil Supply (million bbl/d)

Prior to Disruption
March 2003 (Base Case) Latest Estimate

OPEC-10 Production 25.3 27.11

Iraqi Production 2.3 0.235

Surplus Capacity 1.5-2.0 0.7-1.2

Note: For a more detailed analysis of OPEC production prior to disruption, see EIA's OPEC Fact Sheet. For an overview of the Iraqi oil sector, see EIA's Iraq Country Analysis Brief.

Price Movements

Daily Price Information Week Prior (3/12) Day #1 (3/19) Latest (5/5)

WTI Futures Price ($/bbl) 37.83 29.88 26.49

U.S. Weekly Price Survey Monday Prior
(3/17) Week #1
(Monday 3/24) Latest
(Monday 5/5)

Retail Regular Gasoline
(cents/gallon)
172.8 169.0 151.3

Note: EIA collects a national survey of regular retail gasoline prices every Monday. The current oil supply disruption is not the only factor affecting prices. For more information concerning EIA price statistics and analysis, see: This Week in Petroleum.

NA: Not Available
1Crude oil does not include lease condensate or natural gas liquids.
2Maximum sustainable production capacity, defined as the maximum amount of production that: 1) could be brought online within a period of 30 days; and 2) sustained for at least 90 days.
3Current Kuwaiti production includes surge production in excess of maximum sustainable levels. The Kuwaiti capacity number reflects this surge production.
4 Kuwaiti and Saudi Arabian figures each include half of the production from the Neutral Zone between the two countries. Saudi Arabian production also includes oil produced from its offshore Abu Safa field on behalf of Bahrain.
5 The amount of Saudi Arabia's spare capacity that can be brought online is shown as a range between 0.4 and 0.9 million bbl/d. Some Saudi production may be going into storage.
6 Venezuelan capacity and production numbers exclude extra heavy crude oil used to produce Orimulsion.

*Table includes all countries with net exports exceeding 1 million barrels per day in 2002.

During 2002, roughly half of U.S. crude oil imports came from the Western Hemisphere (18% from Canada, 16% from South America, 12% from Mexico, 1% from the Caribbean), while approximately one-fifth came from the Persian Gulf region (15% from Saudi Arabia, 4% from Iraq, 2% from Kuwait).

In general, OECD Europe depends far more heavily on the Persian Gulf and North Africa for oil imports than does the United States. Japan receives over three-quarters of its oil supplies from the Persian Gulf (mainly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, and Qatar) with the remainder coming from Indonesia, China, and other sources.

Major Sources of U.S. Net Petroleum Imports, 2002* (all volumes in million barrels per day)
	Total Net Oil Imports	Net Crude Oil Imports	Net Petroleum Product Imports
Canada	1.83	1.42	0.41
Saudi Arabia	1.55	1.52	0.03
Venezuela	1.37	1.20	0.17
Mexico	1.28	1.49	-0.21
Nigeria	0.60	0.57	0.03
United Kingdom	0.47	0.41	0.06
Iraq	0.44	0.44	0.00
Norway	0.38	0.34	0.04
Angola	0.33	0.32	0.01
Net Imports	10.38	9.04	1.34

* Table includes all countries from which the U.S. imported more than 300,000 barrels per day of total oil in 2002.

Having provided this information, it is important to stress that oil is a "fungible" (interchangeable, traded on a world market) commodity, that a disruption of oil flows anywhere will affect the price of oil everywhere, and that the specific suppliers of oil to a particular country or region are not of enormous significance, at least from an economic point of view.

Contact:
Lowell Feld
lowell.feld@eia.doe.gov
Phone: Lowell Feld: (202) 586-9502
Fax: (202) 586-9753

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Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2002*
	Country	Net Exports (million barrels per day)
1)	Saudi Arabia	6.76
2)	Russia	5.03
3)	Norway	3.14
4)	Iran	2.30
5)	Venezuela	2.26
6)	United Arab Emirates	1.95
7)	Nigeria	1.85
8)	Kuwait	1.73
9)	Mexico	1.69
10)	Iraq	1.58
11)	Algeria	1.27
12)	Libya	1.16


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