Global Oil Supply Disruptions Since 1951

 

Date of Oil Supply Disruption*

 

Duration (Months of Supply Disruption*)

 

Average Gross Supply Shortfall (Million B/D)

 

Reason for Oil Supply Disruption

 

 

3/51-10/54

 

 

44

 

 

0.7

 

Iranian oil fields nationalized May 1, following months of unrest and strikes in Abadan area.

11/56-3/57

4

2.0

Suez War

12/66-3/67

3

0.7

Syrian Transit Fee Dispute

6/67-8/67

2

2.0

Six Day War

5/70-1/71

9

1.3

Libyan price controversy; damage to Tapline

4/71-8/71

5

0.6

Algerian-French nationalization struggle

3/73-5/73

2

0.5

Unrest in Lebanon; damage to transit facilities

10/73-3/74

6

2.6

October Arab-Israeli War; Arab oil embargo

4/76-5/76

2

0.3

Civil war in Lebanon; disruption to Iraqi exports

5/77

1

0.7

Damage to Saudi oil field

11/78-4/79

6

3.5

Iranian revolution

10/80-12/80

3

3.3

Outbreak of Iran-Iraq War

12/02-2/03**

3

2.1

Venezuela strikes and unrest.

3/03-8/03

6

0.3

Nigeria unrest.

3/03-9/04***

19

1.0

Iraq war and continued unrest.

*Note: "Supply disruption" generally refers to a loss of oil from a particular country or group of countries relative to a preceding month or months. The full extent and impact of a disruption or loss depends on a variety of factors, including: a) replacement production from other, unaffected, countries; b) the level of oil inventories; and c) level and growth rate of demand. Definitions of "oil supply disruptions" are not entirely consistent from one case to the next, in part due to differing views of such events over time and amongst analysts.

**Venezuelan total oil production fell from 3.3 million barrels per day in November 2002 to under 700,000 barrels per day in January 2003, increased to 2.6 million barrels per day in March 2003, and has now stabilized at around 2.8 million barrels per day. Although Venezuelan output has not returned to pre-strike levels, for purposes of this table the "disruption" period is defined as the period between December 2002 and February 2003, when the crisis was at its peak.

***As of September 2004, Iraqi oil output has not yet recovered to pre-war levels (2.5 million barrels per day in February 2003). In April 2004, Iraqi production reached 2.3 million barrels per day, but since then has not exceeded 2.0 million barrels per day in any month through August 2004. Due to the continued instability in Iraq, the "disruption" is considered as continuing, although certainly the peak of the losses from Iraq were experienced during the spring and summer of 2003. From April 2003 through August 2003, the oil supply disruption from Iraq averaged about 2 million barrels per day. In contrast, since the beginning of 2004, the oil supply disruption from Iraq has averaged around 0.5 million barrels per day.