Energy Plug: International Energy Outlook 2004

International Energy Outlook 2004

Global energy consumption is projected to increase by 54 percent from 2001 to 2025 according to the International Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004).

Petroleum consumption will increase 57 percent over the 24-year forecast period and will remain the world’s dominant energy source.

The report also projects that consumption of natural gas will grow 67 percent and net electricity consumption will nearly double by 2025.

Petroleum demand is projected to increase from 77 million barrels per day in 2001 to 121 million barrels per day in 2025. The United States, China, and other nations of developing Asia are expected to account for nearly 60 percent of the growth in demand.

Crude oil prices are projected to moderate after 2004 and then rise slowly to $27 per barrel (in 2002 dollars) in 2025.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will provide most of increased production, but increments are forecast in non-OPEC supply, especially from offshore resources in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa.
Nuclear electricity generation is projected to increase by 20 percent between 2001 and 2020 and then decline 4 percent through 2025.

The nuclear power forecast is higher than in last year’s outlook in light of higher capacity utilization rates reported for many existing nuclear facilities and the expectation that fewer retirements of existing plants will occur than previously projected.

The largest increase in nuclear generation is expected for the developing world, especially China, South Korea, and India.

World Energy Consumption, 1970-2025

Source: Energy Information Administration.

Electricity use is forecast to grow by an average of 2.3 percent per year worldwide and 3.5 percent per year in the developing world.

Robust economic growth in many of the developing nations is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration.

Natural gas is the fastest growing source of primary energy in the IEO2004 reference case, with consumption projected to increase from 90 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2001 to 151 Tcf in 2025.

IEO2004’s estimate of natural gas consumption in the final year of the forecast is 25 Tcf lower than last year’s as the result of lower assumptions for worldwide economic growth, a slower projected decline in nuclear power generation (which competes with natural gas in the power sector), and concerns about the ability of natural gas producers to bring resources to market at competitive prices.

Coal is expected to continue to dominate many national energy markets in developing Asia.

However, with the projected growth in coal consumption averaging 1.5 percent per year through 2025, coal’s share of total world energy consumption declines slightly in the forecast, from 24 percent in 2001 to 23 percent in 2025.
Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 24 billion metric tons in 2001 to 37 billion metric tons in 2025.

Developing countries account for 61 percent of the projected increase because of large increases in the region’s energy use and continuing reliance on coal and other fossil fuels.

Energy intensity in the industrialized countries is expected to improve (decrease) by an average of 1.2 percent per year between 2001 and 2025, slightly slower than the 1.4 percent per year improvement for these countries between 1970 and 2001.

Energy intensity is expected to improve more rapidly in the developing countries as a result of economic expansion.

Energy intensity in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) is expected to improve by 2.5 percent per year on average and be five times as high as in the industrialized world.

Carbon dioxide intensity is projected to decline from 739 metric tons per million 1997 dollars of GDP in 2001 to 566 metric tons per million 1997 dollars of GDP in 2025.

The most rapid rates of improvement are projected for the EE/FSU as old and inefficient capital stocks are replaced, and in China primarily as the result of economic growth rather than a switch to less carbon-intensive fuels.

International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004); 256 pages, 77 tables, 86 figures.

For general information about energy, contact the
National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 or infoctr@eia.doe.gov

If you are having technical problems with this website, contact the
EIA Webmaster at wmaster@eia.doe.gov or call 202-586-8959

Questions about the report's content should be directed to:

Linda Doman, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
linda.doman@eia.doe.gov
Phone: (202) 586-1041

URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/plugs/plieo04.html
File last modified: April 26, 2004


		Global energy consumption is projected to increase by 54 percent from 2001 to 2025 according to the International Energy Outlook 2004 (IEO2004). Petroleum consumption will increase 57 percent over the 24-year forecast period and will remain the world’s dominant energy source. The report also projects that consumption of natural gas will grow 67 percent and net electricity consumption will nearly double by 2025.
		Petroleum demand is projected to increase from 77 million barrels per day in 2001 to 121 million barrels per day in 2025. The United States, China, and other nations of developing Asia are expected to account for nearly 60 percent of the growth in demand. Crude oil prices are projected to moderate after 2004 and then rise slowly to $27 per barrel (in 2002 dollars) in 2025. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will provide most of increased production, but increments are forecast in non-OPEC supply, especially from offshore resources in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa.		Nuclear electricity generation is projected to increase by 20 percent between 2001 and 2020 and then decline 4 percent through 2025. The nuclear power forecast is higher than in last year’s outlook in light of higher capacity utilization rates reported for many existing nuclear facilities and the expectation that fewer retirements of existing plants will occur than previously projected. The largest increase in nuclear generation is expected for the developing world, especially China, South Korea, and India.

		World Energy Consumption, 1970-2025 Source: Energy Information Administration.

		Electricity use is forecast to grow by an average of 2.3 percent per year worldwide and 3.5 percent per year in the developing world. Robust economic growth in many of the developing nations is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Natural gas is the fastest growing source of primary energy in the IEO2004 reference case, with consumption projected to increase from 90 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2001 to 151 Tcf in 2025. IEO2004’s estimate of natural gas consumption in the final year of the forecast is 25 Tcf lower than last year’s as the result of lower assumptions for worldwide economic growth, a slower projected decline in nuclear power generation (which competes with natural gas in the power sector), and concerns about the ability of natural gas producers to bring resources to market at competitive prices. Coal is expected to continue to dominate many national energy markets in developing Asia. However, with the projected growth in coal consumption averaging 1.5 percent per year through 2025, coal’s share of total world energy consumption declines slightly in the forecast, from 24 percent in 2001 to 23 percent in 2025.		Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 24 billion metric tons in 2001 to 37 billion metric tons in 2025. Developing countries account for 61 percent of the projected increase because of large increases in the region’s energy use and continuing reliance on coal and other fossil fuels. Energy intensity in the industrialized countries is expected to improve (decrease) by an average of 1.2 percent per year between 2001 and 2025, slightly slower than the 1.4 percent per year improvement for these countries between 1970 and 2001. Energy intensity is expected to improve more rapidly in the developing countries as a result of economic expansion. Energy intensity in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) is expected to improve by 2.5 percent per year on average and be five times as high as in the industrialized world. Carbon dioxide intensity is projected to decline from 739 metric tons per million 1997 dollars of GDP in 2001 to 566 metric tons per million 1997 dollars of GDP in 2025. The most rapid rates of improvement are projected for the EE/FSU as old and inefficient capital stocks are replaced, and in China primarily as the result of economic growth rather than a switch to less carbon-intensive fuels.

		International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004); 256 pages, 77 tables, 86 figures.



		For general information about energy, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800 or infoctr@eia.doe.gov If you are having technical problems with this website, contact the EIA Webmaster at wmaster@eia.doe.gov or call 202-586-8959 Questions about the report's content should be directed to: Linda Doman, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting linda.doman@eia.doe.gov Phone: (202) 586-1041 URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/plugs/plieo04.html File last modified: April 26, 2004