American industry is projected to become more energy efficient through 2020, when 28 percent less energy will be needed for each unit of output than was used in 1998. Most major industrial groups will share in the gains.

Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry, recently released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), builds on the reference case in the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2002 to present detailed delivered energy consumption projections through 2020 for three industrial sectors -- energy-intensive manufacturing, non-intensive manufacturing, and non-manufacturing -- and 16 specific industries.

Energy-intensive manufacturing industries consume large quantities of energy or have high energy intensities, or both. In 1998, eight such industries accounted for 64 percent of industrial delivered energy consumption: bulk chemicals, petroleum refining, paper, steel, food, cement, aluminum, and glass. All but petroleum refining are forecast to have higher net energy efficiencies in 2020; the group will also reduce its share of industrial energy consumption to 59 percent.

Energy Consumption and Intensity, 1998 and 2020 Energy-Intensive Manufacturing Industries	Bulk chemicals was the largest industrial energy consumer in 1998, with more than one-quarter of the total, and also the second most energy-intensive industry. It will remain the largest consumer in 2020, although its share of consumption will decline by nearly 1 percentage point as its energy intensity falls 6 percent. Steel and aluminum will see decreases in energy intensity and consumption, mostly from more efficient processes and equipment -- electric arc furnaces and near-net-shape casting in the steel industry, and the retirement of less efficient plants and more recycling in the aluminum industry. Cement manufacturing is expected to show the largest efficiency improvement (10,000 Btu per unit output) as new dry-process plants replace less efficient ones, but will still account for only a sliver of total energy consumption.
Source: Energy Information Administration.

Petroleum refining is the only member of this group with a projected rise in energy intensity, the result of two major factors: a higher proportion of heavy, high-sulfur crude oil inputs that are harder to process; and emphasis on low-sulfur gasoline and diesel products that need more processing to meet stricter environmental standards. The rise in energy inputs of 1.4 percent per year will more than offset process efficiency gains averaging 0.3 percent per year.

In the non-intensive manufacturing category, the metal-based durables sector -- which includes the rapidly-growing computer and semiconductor industry -- had the largest share of industrial output in 1998 at 34 percent.

Faster-than-average growth in this dynamic sector will almost double its delivered energy requirements by 2020. In the balance of the manufacturing sector (an amalgam of the remaining manufacturers), growth in output and energy consumption are projected to be moderate.

The non-manufacturing category includes crops, other agriculture, coal mining, other mining, oil and gas extraction, and construction. Energy intensity is expected to decrease in all members of this group except oil and gas extraction, where it will rise by 11 percent over the forecast period as shallower, more easily exploited resources are depleted. The remainder of this group will experience slow to moderate growth in output and energy consumption, and modest declines in energy intensity.

Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 is available only on the EIA Web site.

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File last modified: June 25, 2002