North America--The Energy Picture

North America
The Energy Picture

prepared by

North American Energy Working Group

June 2002

(8) Energy Projections — Main Assumptions

Canada

Table 1. Assumptions

Gross Domestic Product (Total)	2.3 percent average annual growth rate
Gross Domestic Product (Industry)	2.0 percent average annual growth rate
Gross Domestic Product (Services)	2.3 percent average annual growth rate
Population (2010)	34.0 million
Households (2010)	13.8 million
Light Vehicles (2010)	19.3 million
Disposable Income Per Household	$55,194 ($Canadian)
Oil Price (West Texas Intermediate)	$20.60 ($U.S.) per barrel
Natural Gas Price (Henry Hub)	$2.10 ($U.S.) per million cubic feet
_____________________ Note: All dollars based to 1997.

Table 2. Assumptions

Industry	Average Annual Growth (Percent Per Year)
Pulp and Paper	2.0
Chemicals	2.7
Iron and Steel	0.9
Smelting and Refining	2.5
Cement	1.5
Petroleum Refining	0.9
Mining	1.1
Construction	1.9
Forestry	1.5
Other Manufacturing	2.3

Mexico

Gross Domestic Product grows at an average annual growth rate of 5.2 percent during the period 2000-2010.
Total industry grows at an average annual growth rate of 6.2 percent during the period 2000-2010.
Manufacturing industry grows at an average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent during the period 2000-2010.
Population grows at an annual average growth rate of 1.2 percent.
Electricity capacity and electricity generation include only the public sector and exclude exports.
Electricity demand does not include private power generation.
Petroleum demand data include the crude oil processed in refineries of the SNR only. Petroleum demand does not include oils processed at Cangrejera.

United States

Table 1. Assumptions
Gross Domestic Product (2010 reference case)	2.9 percent average annual growth rate
Gross Domestic Product (2010 low economic growth case)	2.5 percent average annual growth rate
Gross Domestic Product (2010 high economic growth case)	3.5 percent average annual growth rate
World Oil Price (2010 low economic growth)	$22.75 (U.S.) per barrel
World Oil Price (2010 high economic growth)	$23.87 (U.S.) per barrel
Gas Wellhead Price (2010 low economic growth)	$2.66 (U.S.) per million cubic feet
Gas Wellhead Price (2010 high economic growth)	$3.31 (U.S.) per million cubic feet
Coal Minemouth Price (2010 low economic growth)	$13.70 (U.S.) per short ton
Coal Minemouth Price (2010 high economic growth)	$14.04 (U.S.) per short ton
Average Electricity Price (2010 low economic growth)	6.2 cents (U.S.) per kWh
Average Electricity Price (2010 high economic growth)	6.6 cents (U.S.) per kWh