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Comparison of 1999 End-Use Estimates with Previous CBECS

Tables 4, 5, and 6 show national-level end-use consumption estimated by nonlinear regression modeling for the 1992, 1995, and 1999 CBECS for natural gas, electricity, and fuel oil. Table 7 compares the 1992 and 1995 nonlinear regression estimates with the published SAE-based estimates for the 1992 and 1995 CBECS. The end-use estimates of the two methodologies show significant differences. For electricity, the nonlinear regression estimate for cooling is higher, and lighting lower, than the SAE estimates. For both natural gas and fuel oil, the estimates for space heating are higher, and estimates for water heating lower, for nonlinear regression. Clearly, the selection of end-use estimation methodology impacts the results.
Table 4. Natural Gas End-Use Consumption (nonlinear regression), 1992, 1995, and 1999 (Preliminary Estimates)
1992
(trillion Btu)
1995
(trillion Btu)
1999
(trillion Btu)
Total Natural Gas
2,174
1,946
2,023
Natural Gas End Uses  
Space Heating
1,578
1,366
1,483
Water Heating
283
245
275
Cooking
202
263
200
Appliances
43
43
59
Cooling
35
27
8

Table 5. Electricity End-Use Consumption (nonlinear regression), 1992, 1995, and 1999 (Preliminary Estimates)
1992
(trillion Btu)
1995
(trillion Btu)
1999
(trillion Btu)
Total Electricity
2,609
2,608
3,098
Electricity End Uses  
Cooling
574
900
793
Lighting
723
660
716
Office Equipment
164
227
555
Refrigeration
264
216
266
Ventilation
316
159
226
Space Heating
(*)
162
155
Cooking
37
34
65
Water Heating
37
26
37
Other
410
230
288
(*) = value rounds to zero in units displayed.

Table 6. Fuel Oil End-Use Consumption (nonlinear regression), 1992, 1995, and 1999 (Preliminary Estimates)
1992
(trillion Btu)
1995
(trillion Btu)
1999
(trillion Btu)
Total Fuel Oil
272
235
179
Fuel Oil End Uses  
Space Heating
243
185
167
Water Heating
21
35
6
Electricity Generation
9
10
6
Appliances
4
5
(*)
(*) = value rounds to zero in units displayed.

Table 7. Comparison of Nonlinear Regression and SAE-based End-Use Consumption, 1992 and 1995 (Preliminary Estimates)
 
SAE-based estimates
(percent of consumption)
Nonlinear regression-based
estimates
(percent of consumption)
 
1992
1995
1992
1995
Natural Gas End Uses  
Space Heating
61
56
73
70
Water Heating
23
27
13
13
Cooking
8
10
9
14
Other
9
7
4
4
Electricity End Uses  
Cooling
17
13
22
35
Lighting
45
46
28
25
Office Equipment
8
13
6
9
Refrigeration
5
7
10
8
Ventilation
6
6
12
6
Space Heating
4
4
(*)
6
Cooking
1
1
1
1
Water Heating
7
2
1
1
Other
7
8
16
9
Fuel Oil End Uses  
Space Heating
72
68
89
79
Water Heating
23
23
8
15
Other
6
9
5
7
(*) = value rounds to zero in units displayed.

Specific questions may be addressed to:

Alan Swenson
alan.swenson@eia.doe.gov
Phone: (202) 586-1129
FAX: (202) 586-0018

Release date: October 27, 2003
Page last modified on:

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