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June 2005
Non-OPEC
Fact Sheet
NON-OPEC Countries
 Non-OPEC
countries (countries not members of OPEC - the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries) produced 60 percent of the world's oil (total liquids) in
2004, down from 62 percent in 2003. Since 1970, non-OPEC production as a
share of world total oil production reached a high of 71 percent in 1985 and
a low of 48 percent in 1973, with a 60 percent average.
Non-OPEC countries share the following characteristics:
- Most non-OPEC
countries are net oil importers. Of the 204 non-OPEC countries and
non-independent territories for which EIA maintains data, 173 (85
percent) were net oil importers in 2004. Even large producers can also
be large (net) importers.
- Because most major
non-OPEC countries have private oil sectors (Mexico
is one notable exception), their governments generally have
very little control over production levels. Companies react to
international price expectations, exploring and drilling more and in
higher cost areas when prices are high, and
focusing on lower-cost production when prices are low. Russia
has private companies in its oil sector for the most part; however, the
export pipeline network is controlled by the state-owned company Transneft. The Russian state has been more active in
the sector in recent years, and state-owned Rosneft
has expanded by taking over Yukos’ largest
unit in late 2004.
- Private companies do
not hold back profitable production, and maintain very little spare
production capacity. Hence, in the case of a significant world oil
production disruption, OPEC (rather than private oil companies) would be
the primary immediate source of additional oil to displace the loss,
other than oil in storage facilities or strategic reserves (note that
the decision to use strategic reserves is made by policymakers, who may
not decide to use such reserves even in the case of a sizable
disruption).
- Non-OPEC production
costs tend to be higher than OPEC lifting costs, which makes non-OPEC production
more vulnerable to price collapses. Prolonged periods of low prices can
drive higher cost producers out of business, and make major oil
companies focus less on higher cost areas.
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION
The world's oil supply comes from a wide variety of sources. While the Middle
East (home to the largest OPEC producers) was the largest producing region in
2004, with 29 percent of total world production, North America accounted for
19 percent, with the remaining 52 percent dispersed fairly evenly throughout
the globe. OPEC member countries together accounted for about 40 percent of
world total oil production in 2004, up from 38 percent in 2003.
 Of the 14
countries that produced more than 2 million bbl/d of total
liquids in 2004, seven were OPEC members. The remaining seven were not
OPEC members, including: the
United States (the world's third-largest total oil producer for the
year); Russia;
Mexico; China; Canada; and North Sea
countries Norway
and the United Kingdom.
It should be noted that the United States' total liquids production is boosted by the very large
refinery gain that occurs there - over one million bbl/d in
2004.
 Of the world's top net oil exporters, OPEC countries are strongly
represented. Ten of the 14 countries exporting more than one million barrels
per day of total oil (net) in 2004 were OPEC members. Russia, Norway, Mexico, and Kazakhstan are the world's largest non-OPEC net oil exporters.
The United
States
is the world's largest net oil importer. China is also a net oil importer, while Canada and the United Kingdom are smaller net oil exporters. (Note: EIA does not
have 2004 data for worldwide gross oil exports, and computes net
oil exports from production and consumption data.)
Top
World Oil Producers and Oil Net Exporters 2004 Tables
Non-OPEC oil production is
expected to rise during the next 2 years, though not enough to keep pace with
total world oil demand growth. The
greatest increases are expected in the former Soviet Union (FSU), including Russia (though less growth from Russia than in the previous two years) and the states
bordering the Caspian
Sea, and in other non-OECD producers, particularly Angola and Brazil. Brazil is
expected to become a net exporter sometime in the next two years. (view
a table of world production data).
PRODUCTION COORDINATION WITH OPEC?
A few non-OPEC countries that share some traits of OPEC countries sometimes
have indicated that they would coordinate production policies with OPEC
(though they have not always actually carried out these policies). While the
stated volumes of non-OPEC production (or export) restrictions have usually
been small, the participation of these non-member countries can make member
countries more likely to maintain their own output restriction policies.
Therefore, non-OPEC coordination with OPEC often has carried a significance beyond what the output data might imply. It
should be noted that the absence of low oil prices since early 2002 have
meant that non-OPEC producers have seen little reason to restrain output of
late - there has been no explicit cooperation with OPEC to cut production
and/or exports since 2002. Mexico,
Norway, Russia, Oman, and Angola have announced intentions to cut production
or exports in the past, but it is extremely unlikely that any of them would
do this in the current price environment.
Indeed, on June 16, 2005, oil ministers of Mexico and Norway announced
that they have no spare capacity and asserted that all of the world’s spare
capacity that might remain lies in OPEC countries.
WORLD OIL CONSUMPTION
Of the estimated preliminary 82.5 million bbl/d of oil the world consumed in
2004, OPEC countries together consumed about 7 million bbl/d, or 8.5 percent
of total consumption. Most of the world's largest oil consumers are also net
oil importers. Of the world's top ten oil consumers in 2004, only Russia and
Canada were net oil exporters. The
remaining top consumers also are listed as the world's largest oil importers,
with the exception Brazil, which was the 18th largest net oil
importer in 2004.
Top
World Oil Consumers and Oil Net Importers 2004 Tables
PROVEN CRUDE OIL
RESERVES
It is generally agreed that the location of proven world crude oil reserves
is far more concentrated in OPEC countries than current world oil production.
Note that estimates of reserves vary; EIA does not assess oil reserves, but
does list several independent estimates here. According to one independent estimate (Oil
and Gas Journal), of the world's 1.28 trillion barrels of proven
reserves, 885 billion barrels (69 percent) are held by OPEC, as of January
2005. The non-OPEC reserves include Canadian non-conventional reserves. Not
including Canada, according to this estimate the world's proven oil
reserves are about 1.1 trillion barrels, of which OPEC holds 84 percent. In
the future, the inclusion of non-conventional oil reserves for other
countries may also significantly impact OPEC member Venezuela, as well as
non-OPEC countries such as Australia. Non-conventional reserves are generally
more expensive to produce than conventional crude oil reserves and may
require special facilities and technologies. Because non-OPEC countries'
smaller reserves are being depleted more rapidly than OPEC reserves, their
overall reserves-to-production ratio -- an indicator of how long proven
reserves would last at current production rates -- is much lower (about 26
years for non-OPEC and 83 years for OPEC, based on 2004 crude oil production
rates). This implies increased OPEC production as a proportion of world production
over the long term.
 REFINED
PRODUCTS
As of January 2005, 89 percent (73.4 million bbl/d)
of the world's 82.4 million bbl/d of crude oil refinery capacity was located
in non-OPEC countries. Countries with high petroleum demand tend to have
large refinery capacities. The United States has far more refinery capacity
than any other country, with 149 of the world's 691 refineries, and a crude
oil refinery capacity of about 16.9 million bbl/d (not including
territories). Russia's refinery capacity stands at an estimated 5.4 million
bbl/d. Japan (4.7 million bbl/d) and China (4.6 million bbl/d) are the only remaining countries
with refinery capacities exceeding 3 million bbl/d.
There are several countries that are important
to world trade in refined petroleum products despite very low (or
non-existent) levels of crude oil production. For instance, Caribbean
nations (including U.S. and European territories) have very limited oil
production (233,000 bbl/d in 2004), but refinery capacity of about 1.7
million bbl/d. Much of this refined product is exported to the United States.
Other countries that are important sources of refined petroleum products yet
have very limited domestic production include the Netherlands, South Korea,
and Singapore.
LINKS
Links to other EIA information:
EIA International
Petroleum Monthly (latest month)
EIA OPEC Fact Sheet
EIA
International Petroleum Information
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File last modified: June 15, 2005
Contact:
Charles Esser
charles.esser@eia.doe.gov
Phone: (202) 586-6120
Fax: (202) 586-9753
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