VI. Africa

African Growth Trends

• Between 1980 and 2001, Africa experienced growth in all five of the indicators examined here. All five indicators grew at roughly the same pace, between 2.0% and 3.1% per year.
• Africa’s electricity consumption grew the most rapidly over the period, rising 88% overall -- an average rate of 3.1% per year.
• Population (2.5% per year), energy consumption (2.5%), and carbon dioxide emissions (2.3%) increased at approximately equal rates, with per capita energy use and carbon dioxide emissions rates declining very gradually.
• Between 1980 and 2001, Africa’s real GDP grew the least rapidly – just 2.0% per year -- of all indicators examined here. As a result, per capita real income fell, while electricity, carbon, and energy intensity levels increased.

• African commercial energy consumption increased from 5 quads in 1980 to 8 quads in 2001. Africa is by far the smallest consumer of commercial energy of all the world’s regions.
• At the same time, Africa is probably the largest consumer in the world of “traditional” energy sources like fuel wood and animal waste. They meet a huge portion of Africa’s energy needs. While this type of consumption is of great importance, it is not reflected in the numbers because of the difficulty of collecting accurate data. For that reason, only commercial energy is included here. It is worth noting that the heavy reliance on “traditional” energy sources is closely linked with deforestation and a likely net loss in carbon sequestration.
• Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, fossil fuels consistently comprised around 90% of Africa’s commercial fuel mix. While natural gas increased its share from 1% to 5% of total energy consumption, coal and oil remain the region’s dominant sources of fossil energy. These two fuels’ relative shares have remained essentially constant since the late 1980s, with coal contributing slightly less than 50% of the region’s energy demand and oil providing slightly less than 40%.
• Africa was the only region other than the MENA where non-fossil energy’s share declined between 1980 and 2001. Most of this decline -- from 11% to 9% of total energy consumption-- reflects the decline in hydroelectric power’s share from 11% to 8% during the period.
• Nuclear power’s share of total African energy consumption has fluctuated between 1% and 2% since 1980. Only South Africa generates nuclear power, but even that country has not significantly increased its nuclear output since 1988.

• Africa is the world’s poorest region, and it grew poorer both absolutely and comparatively between 1980 and 2001. During this period, Africa’s per capita real GDP declined an average of 0.5% per year, from $1,945 to $1,756, as the region’s economy failed to grow as rapidly as its population. At the same time, Africa’s per capita real GDP declined from 38% of the global average in 1980 to just 25% in 2001.
• In 1980, Africa’s per capita real GDP was more than 50% higher than that of Developing Asia, which was the lowest at the time. As a result of African economic stagnation and Asian growth during the 1980s and 1990s, Africa’s per capita GDP fell to barely half that of Developing Asia in 2001.
• The trend of declining incomes affected both rich and poor African nations. South Africa, the continent’s strongest economy, experienced a 20% decline in its real per capita income between 1980 and 1993, from $11,339 to $9,016. It subsequently recovered to almost $9,987 in 2001, but this still represented a 12% decline from 1980.
• African per capita energy consumption remained almost constant over the period, averaging around 11.5 million Btu. In 2001, Africa’s per capita energy consumption was less than 16% of the rest of the world’s per capita average and just 5% of the G-7 per capita average. This figure actually overstates consumption in the region, for it includes South Africa, which consumes at an anomalously high rate and accounts for a disproportionate amount of African consumption.
• In 2001, South African citizens consumed 104 million Btu per person, almost 10 times the regional average. Excluding South Africa, the African per capita energy consumption rate would fall to 5 million Btu per person, 2% of the G-7’s level.

• Africa’s energy intensity increased slightly between 1980 and 2001, from 5,953 Btu per $1995-PPP to 6,555 Btu per $1995-PPP. Nigeria and South Africa accounted for the bulk of this increase, as they consume the bulk of the region’s energy and constitute the largest economies.
• Nigeria’s energy intensity rose rapidly between 1980 and 2001, increasing an average of 1.8% per year, from 6,175 Btu per $1995-PPP 8,973 Btu per $1995-PPP. Most of this increase took place in the early 1980s, when high oil prices helped fuel development. Since then, Nigeria’s energy intensity has declined.
• Between 1980 and 2001, South African energy intensity grew an average of 1.0% per year, from 8,508 Btu per $1995-PPP to 10,391 Btu per $1995-PPP.
• The decline in Zimbabwe’s energy intensity in the 1990s likely reflects its difficulty procuring fuel due to economic and political problems.

• Between 1980 and 2001, Africa’s energy related carbon dioxide emissions grew 61% overall -- an average of 2.3% annually -- from 390 MMT to 630 MMT. During this period, the region’s per capita carbon dioxide emissions rate declined 5% overall, from 0.95 metric tons per person to 0.9 metric tons per person. Both Africa’s absolute carbon dioxide emissions and its per capita carbon dioxide emissions rate were the lowest in the world in 2001.
• Africa has very low carbon dioxide emissions because of its lack of a large transportation sector, combined with relatively low rates of electrification, appliance penetration, and industrialization.
• Africa is not converging to other non-OECD regions’ per capita carbon dioxide emissions rates. Between 1980 and 2001, Africa was the only non-OECD region other than the EE&FSU to experience a decline in per capita carbon dioxide emissions. This reflects the relative absence of economic and industrial development compared to other non-OECD regions.
• Much of Africa’s carbon dioxide emissions growth between 1980 and 2001 came from South Africa, the region’s only major carbon emitter. In 2001, South Africa accounted for 61% of Africa’s total carbon dioxide emissions. During this period, South African emissions grew from 235 MMT to 386 MMT. Much of the reason for South Africa large carbon dioxide emissions is its reliance on coal.
• Despite having a population almost three times larger than South Africa’s, Nigeria emitted less than a quarter as much carbon during the past 20 years. This reflects the relative absence of industrial development. Nigeria’s carbon dioxide emissions grew modestly, rising an average of 1.0% a year, from 69 MMT to 86 MMT.

• Between 1980 and 2001, African carbon dioxide intensity grew slightly, from 0.49 metric tons per thousand $1995-PPP to 0.51 metric tons per thousand $1995-PPP. Other than the MENA, Africa was the only world region where carbon dioxide intensity increased during this period.
• South Africa and Nigeria released the most carbon per dollar of GDP throughout the 1980s and 1990s, reflecting their status as the most industrialized country and largest energy producer, respectively, in Africa.
• Nigeria’s carbon dioxide intensity is the lowest of all OPEC members, but it remains significantly higher than the levels of rest of the major African economies’ (other than South Africa).
• Nigeria’s carbon dioxide intensity declined 26% between 1996 and 2001, likely reflecting its decision to reduce the flaring of natural gas.
• South Africa’s carbon dioxide intensity is particularly high (0.87 metric tons per thousand $1995-PPP in 2001) because it derives so much of its energy consumption from highly carbon-intensive coal. In 2001, coal accounted for 75% of South African energy consumption.

• African electricity consumption grew an average of 3.1% per year between 1980 and 2001, from 146 bkwh to 275 bkwh. During this time, Africa’s per capita demand for electricity declined relative to that in the MENA region, making Africa the region with the smallest per capita consumption of electricity in the world.
• Africa’s lack of industrialization is apparent from its very low per capita demand for electricity. In 2001, Africans consumed only 394 kwh per person, which is less than 5% of the OECD per capita electricity consumption rate and just over 50% of Developing Asia’s consumption rate.
• South Africa consumes an absolute majority of the electricity used in Africa, and has a significantly higher per capita consumption rate than the region’s other countries. South Africa’s share of Africa’s electricity consumption grew from 59% in 1980 to 66% in 2001 as its electricity consumption increased from 87 bkwh to 181 bkwh.
• If South Africa is excluded, Africa’s per capita electricity consumption in 2001 would have been around 140 kwh, less than 2% of OECD per capita power consumption.

• Overall, African electricity intensity grew 23% between 1980 and 2001, rising from 183 kwh per $1995-PPP to 224 kwh per $1995-PPP. This constitutes an average annual increase of 1%.
• South Africa accounted for the bulk of this increase due to its disproportionate consumption of electricity. South Africa’s electricity intensity grew from 270 kwh per $1995-PPP in 1980 to 409 kwh per $1995-PPP in 2001. By 2001, South Africa’s electricity intensity actually was 18% higher than the OECD average.