IV. Developing Asia

Developing Asia Development Trends

• Between 1980 and 2001, Developing Asia grew tremendously in very energy-related and economic category. The region’s population also expanded rapidly (1.7% per year), but far slower than GDP (6.8% per year), meaning that per capita real income rose dramatically during the period.
• Developing Asia’s electricity consumption grew the most rapidly in percentage terms during the 1980s and 1990s. In 21 years, it grew 373%, reflecting an average annual increase of 7.7%. Only the MENA region’s electricity consumption grew more in percentage terms (379% overall).
• No region came close to equaling the pace of Developing Asia’s economic expansion between 1980 and 2001. During that period, the region’s real GDP grew an average of 6.8% per year, for an overall increase of almost 300%.
• Over the period, energy consumption increased 179% overall (5.0% per year), which was second only to the MENA region (183%).
• Developing Asia’s population grew an average of 1.7% per year between 1980 and 2001, far slower than real GDP, resulting in a rapid increased in per capita real incomes.

• Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Developing Asia derived more than 90% of the energy it consumed from fossil fuels. This dependence remained roughly constant despite the region’s dramatic increase in total energy consumption, from 30 quads in 1980 to 85 quads in 2001.
• Many countries in Developing Asia are significant consumers of traditional energy (e.g. fuel-wood), especially in South Asia. Unfortunately, reliable data on traditional energy consumption are unavailable.
• The region’s non-fossil energy comes mainly from hydroelectric plants. Nuclear power plays a small but increasingly important role. Between 1980 and 2001, hydroelectric power increased its share of total energy consumption from 5% to 6%, while nuclear energy’s share grew from less than 1% to 2%. In absolute terms, consumption of hydropower grew from 1.6 quads to 4.7 quads during the period. At the same time, nuclear energy consumption grew from 0.1 quads to 1.8 quads.
• India and China dominate Developing Asia’s energy consumption statistics. The two countries combined to account for 52 quads of the region’s 85 quads of total energy consumption in 2001.
• Coal continues to make up the bulk of the region’s energy portfolio, but its importance declined relative to both oil and natural gas between 1980 and 2001. Despite rising briefly in the 1980s in response to high oil prices, coal’s share of Developing Asia’s total energy consumption fell from 54% to 46% over the period.

• Between 1980 and 2001, many Developing Asia countries experienced rapid growth in their per capita incomes. Regionally, real GDP per capita rose from $1,210 to $3,355 during the period -- an average annual rate of 5.0%. Incomes in Taiwan and South Korea grew enough to converge with members of the OECD.
• The region’s economic growth was not distributed evenly, causing significant changes in relative prosperity within the region. For example, in 1980 Pakistan’s per capita income was 150% of China’s. By 2001, Pakistani per capita income had fallen to just 45% of the Chinese level due to far more rapid real GDP growth in China during the 1980s and 1990s.
• Within Developing Asia, China experienced the greatest percentage increase in per capita real GDP between 1980 and 2001. During that period, China’s per capita income grew 425% -- 8.2% per year -- from $699 to $3,664. Most of this growth was concentrated along China’s coast, as an income gap opened up between rural and urban workers.^[20]
• India, the other regional giant, experienced more modest income growth. India’s per capita real GDP grew from $1,276 to $2,660 -- 3.6% per year-- between 1980 and 2001. The majority of this growth occurred in the last ten years of the period.
• Like China, India’s growth was unevenly distributed within the country. The bulk took place in prosperous, comparatively urbanized regions where economic structures were converging to OECD standards. The rest of the country’s economic and energy patterns remained more similar to poorer countries.^[21]

• Overall, Developing Asia’s per capita energy consumption grew from 13 million Btu per person to 26 million Btu per person between 1980 and 2001, which represents an average annual growth rate of increase of 3.3%. The growth rates of individual countries’ varied considerably.
• As with real income, per capita energy consumption data suggest a growing developmental divide in Asia. Energy consumption levels in East Asia tended to grow faster than those in South Asia despite being higher initially. Between 1980 and 2001, South Korean and Taiwanese citizens’ per capita consumption expanded an average of 6.7% and 5.1% per year. Indian and Pakistani per capita consumption grew 3.5% and 2.5% during the same period.
• By 2001, these different growth rates resulted in per capita consumption levels in Taiwan (182 million Btu) and South Korea (170 million Btu) that were an order of magnitude higher than those in India (13 million Btu) and Pakistan (13 million Btu).
• Chinese per capita energy consumption grew from 18 million Btu to 31 million Btu during the 1980s and 1990s, a far smaller rate of increase (2.7% per year) than for per capita real income. The modest change in per capita energy consumption reflects the considerable improvement in China’s energy efficiency over the period.

• Between 1980 and 2001, Developing Asia’s energy intensity declined 29% overall -- a pace of 1.6% per year -- from 10,864 Btu per $1995-PPP to 7,681 Btu per $1995-PPP. This decline was almost completely accounted for by one country, China.
• China’s energy intensity declined 66% -- 5.1% per year -- between 1980 and 2001, from 25,078 Btu per $1995-PPP to 8,425Btu per $1995-PPP.
• If China’s energy intensity had not declined between 1980 and 2001, the country’s total energy consumption in 2001 would have been 118 quads, 78 quads higher than the actual amount and 20 quads higher than that of the United States.
• The dramatic declines in China’s energy and carbon dioxide intensities resulted from a number of factors. The most important elements were improvements in technical energy efficiency and changes in product mix and quality. Structural shifts in China’s economy played a smaller, albeit still important role.^[22]
• The energy intensities of Indonesia and Thailand rose an average of 1.7% and 2.5% per year between 1980 and 2001, reaching 8,254 Btu per $1995-PPP and 8,137 Btu per $1995-PPP, respectively. This increase reflects the two countries’ development of domestic energy resources as well as the expansion of their respective heavy industries.

• Carbon dioxide emissions grew substantially in Developing Asia between 1980 and 2001, rising 151% -- 4.5% per year -- from 2,398 MMT to 6,027 MMT. The bulk of the region’s carbon dioxide emissions come from its two populous giants, India and China. In 2001, these two countries accounted for two thirds of all of Developing Asia’s carbon dioxide emissions.
• China’s carbon dioxide emissions grew more slowly than India’s between 1980 and 2001, rising 111%, or 3.6% per year, from 1,445 MMT to 3,050 MMT. During the same period, Indian carbon dioxide emissions more than tripled (annual growth of 5.4%), increasing from 303 MMT to 922 MMT.
• Carbon dioxide emissions in Indonesia and Thailand grew the fastest among Developing Asian countries examined here between 1980 and 2001. This reflects those two countries’ development of energy-intensive industries. Indonesian carbon dioxide emissions grew an average of 6.4% per year, from 86 MMT to 319 MMT, between 1980 and 2001. Thai carbon dioxide emissions increased at an average annual pace of 7.9%, from 36 MMT to 178 MMT.

• Between 1980 and 2001, the carbon dioxide intensity of Developing Asia fell 26% -- an average annual decline of 2.1% per year -- from 0.85 metric tons per thousand $1995-PPP to 0.54 metric tons per thousand $1995-PPP. As with energy intensity, China accounted for most of this decline.
• China’s carbon dioxide intensity fell 69% -- an average annual decline of 5.4% per year -- from 2.10 metric tons per thousand $1995-PPP in 1980 to 0.65 metric tons per thousand $1995-PPP in 2001.
• If China’s carbon dioxide intensity had not declined between 1980 and 2001, ceteris paribus, the country would have emitted about 9,870 MMT of carbon dioxide in 2001. This is more than all the carbon dioxide emitted by the G-7 in that year.
• South Korea and Taiwan, two of the most developed nations in Developing Asia, experienced very slow declines in carbon dioxide intensity -- an average of 1.0% and 0.4% per year, respectively – during the period. These two countries each experienced growth in nuclear energy during the period, along with non-carbon-intensive and non-energy-intensive industries.
• Thailand’s carbon dioxide intensity increased an average of 1.9% per year between 1980 and 2001. Thailand’s growth likely ndicates the steady expansion of its energy and heavy industrial sectors.

• Electricity consumption in Developing Asia grew tremendously between 1980 and 2001. During the period, total regional demand for electricity increased an average of 7.7% per year, rising from 577 bkwh to 2,730 bkwh. This rapid growth reflected the region’s industrialization and rural electrification efforts.
• In absolute terms, much of the growth in Developing Asia’s power demand took place in the region’s two giants, India and China. Together, these two countries’ power consumption levels grew by almost 1,500 bkwh between 1980 and 2001.
• China’s electricity demand increased at an average rate of 7.9% per year between 1980 and 2001, rising from 266 bkwh to 1,312 bkwh. At the same time, Indian electricity consumption grew at an average annual pace of 7.4%, from 111 bkwh to 497 bkwh.
• One of the fastest growing end uses for electricity in China has become refrigerators and air conditioners. This reflects the rising incomes of part of the coastal, urban population.^[23]
• Per capita electricity consumption grew faster in Developing Asia than anywhere else in the world between 1980 and 2001, increasing 5.9% per year, from 249 kwh to 827 kwh.
• Some countries in the Developing Asia region experienced even more rapid growth in per capita power consumption than India (5.3% per year) or China (6.6% per year) between 1980 and 2001. During the period, per capita power demand in Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea grew an average of 7.8%, 8.0%, and 9.5% per year, respectively.

• Between 1980 and 2001, Developing Asia’s electricity intensity increased 15%, from 206 kwh per $1995-PPP to 247 kwh per $1995-PPP. This suggests a comparatively modest annual increase of 0.9%.
• As with carbon and energy intensity, China’s disproportionate share of regional energy consumption and economic output skews the regional picture. China’s electricity intensity declined an average of 1.5% per year between 1980 and 2001, which is significantly faster than any country in the G-7. If China were excluded, Developing Asia’s electricity intensity actually would have risen an average of 2.0% per year, faster than any other region except for MENA and Latin America.
• Much of the decrease in Chinese electricity intensity reflects an increase in technical efficiency as small, wasteful power plants were replaced by larger, more modern and energy efficient facilities.
• Some of the reasons for the rest of Developing Asia’s rising electricity intensity likely include efforts to electrify rural areas, as well as the decision of an increasingly large portion of consumers to purchase electricity intensive appliances like refrigerators and air conditioners.