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Afghanistan
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Energy Transit
Due to its strategic location, Afghanistan could become an important pipeline transit route.
Due to its location between the oil and natural gas reserves of the Caspian Basin and the Indian Ocean, Afghanistan has long been considered a potential pipeline route. However, in the near term, there are several obstacles to building a pipeline across Afghanistan. During the mid-1990s, Unocal had pursued a possible natural gas pipeline from Turkmenistan's Dauletabad-Donmez gas basin via Afghanistan to Pakistan, but pulled out after the U.S. missile strikes against Afghanistan in August 1998. The Afghan government under President Karzai has tried to revive the Trans-Afghan Pipeline (TAP) plan, with periodic talks held between the governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkmenistan on the issue.

On December 9, 2003, a protocol on the pipeline was signed by the governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkmenistan. President Karzai has stated his belief that the project could generate $100-$300 million per year in transit fees for Afghanistan, while creating thousands of jobs in the country. However, so far no major Western companies have expressed interest in building the project. The security situation in Afghanistan remains an obvious problem, while the difficulty in getting an agreement between India and Pakistan makes it hard to extend the pipeline into India and its large (and growing) gas market. Financial problems in the utility sector in India, which would be the major consumer of the natural gas, also could pose a problem for construction of the TAP line. The pipeline's $2.5-$3.5 billion estimated cost could be an obstacle to its construction.

The Asian Development Bank has sponsored a feasibility study of the project by the British firm Penspen, which was completed in January 2005. The study indicates that the TAP is promising. The study envisions a 56-inch diameter pipeline, with a design capacity of 1.16 Tcf per year. The pipeline would start in Turkmenistan and run 1,043 miles through Afghanistan and Pakistan, terminating at Fazilka, a frontier station on the Indian border. The feasibility study estimated a cost of $3.3 billion. At this point, the TAP needs sponsors, if it is to move forward.

Country Analysis Briefs

February 2006
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