World Analytical Studies

Is Nuclear Back in the Equation?

On July 23, 2001, delegates at an international conference in Bonn, Germany, reached a consensus essential to implementing the environmental targets of the Kyoto protocol. Under the accord, nuclear power was excluded as a 'flexible mechanism' for achieving emissions targets. The Energy Information Administration (EIA), does not advocate energy policy, nor does it endorse any fuel. EIA's role is to provide unbiased data on energy trends to other Government agencies, the Congress, private industry, and the general public. Shortly after the Bonn conference, EIA released an analytical paper that examined whether nuclear power has a potential role in addressing the greenhouse gas problem in the United States. The authors did not seek to prove that the nuclear option was the best option or better or worse than any other option. They did, however, conclude that achieving emissions targets would be significantly more difficult if nuclear capacity declined substantially. The level of air quality in Asia has led to a crisis. The appearance of a large brown cloud over southern Asia resurrects a question often asked after the Bonn conference: can emissions targets be met without a more significant expansion of nuclear capacity?

Critics of nuclear expansion can point to the fact that more nuclear power plants are planned or under construction in Asia than in any other region on the planet. Nevertheless, the air quality over a significant part of Asia continues to deteriorate. Furthermore, the United States has not brought a single new nuclear reactor on line since 1996, but U.S. carbon dioxide emissions dropped in 2001 for the first time in a decade. Nuclear power plants are too expensive for much of the third world, take longer to build than fossil fuel plants, require highly trained personnel to operate, extensive security, an effective regulatory program, environmental impact studies, and an effective and potentially costly program to quickly deal with emergencies. In developed countries, much of the infrastructure is already in place-but in three quarters of the world, it is not. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that the Bonn conference did not show widespread enthusiasm for nuclear power.

As often happens with debates, people can choose either side but passion and facts can not. Carbon dioxide levels are rising in Asia, but the increases are lowest among the leading producers of nuclear-generated electricity. EIA projects that regional emissions levels for developing Asian countries will average 3.9 percent by 2020. In South Korea, the projected increase is only 2.3 percent. Japan, with the world's third largest nuclear capacity, is expected to fare even better, limiting emissions increases to 0.9 percent. The China Feature described below, notes that China's emissions levels are expected to total 1,692 metric tons of carbon equivalent (mtce) by 2020 compared with only 617 mtce in 1990. China is the world's leading consumer of coal, but it relies far less than developed countries on clean coal technologies. China has an ambitious nuclear construction program, but even if all of the planned plants are built-nuclear power will represent only about 2 percent of the nation's energy supply. China's projected emissions level increase of 4.5 percent would be the world's highest but not sufficient to overtake the United States in this unenviable category. In Indonesia, one of the largest Asian countries plagued by severe pollution, no commercial nuclear power plants exist or are planned.

Whether nuclear power or some other form of energy, extensive conservation programs, or new technologies will solve the problem that threatens the existence of the planet-time will tell. There may not be a solution. But until the crisis passes, nuclear power will at least be back in the debate. LASTEST UPDATE: The Nuclear Energy Agency has just released a report analyzing nuclear in relation to the Kyoto Protocol.

China Feature: "No other country in Asia (or anywhere else on the planet) is expected to grow as fast as China" according to a feature prepared by the Energy Information Administration on the Chinese Nuclear Industry. The feature has an interactive map, provides an historical chronology of the development of commercial nuclear power in China, summarizes current nuclear situation, and projects future nuclear trends.

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