Executive Summary

Generation: Net generation in the United States dropped by 4.3 percent from March 2008 to March 2009. This was the eighth consecutive month that net generation was down compared to the same calendar month in the prior year. The Commerce Department reported that real gross domestic product decreased from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, and industrial production in March 2009, as reported by the Federal Reserve, was 12.8 percent lower than it had been in March 2008, the ninth consecutive month that same-month industrial production was lower than it had been in the previous year. The decline in net generation is also consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) population-weighted Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI) for March 2009, which was 3.7 percent “below average consumption.” In March 2008, the REDTI was “near average.”

The drop in coal-fired generation was the largest absolute fuel-specific decline from March 2008 to March 2009 as it fell by 24,656 thousand megawatthours, or 15.3 percent. Gas prices have been generally trending downward since June 2008, and the March 2009 natural gas price for the electric power sector was 48.4 percent lower than it was in March 2008. Gas-fired generation was the largest absolute fuel-specific increase in March 2009 as it was up by 6,430 thousand megawatthours, or 10.4 percent from March 2008. Coal-fired generation was down by 7,464 thousand megawatthours in Georgia, Alabama, Pennsylvania, and Florida, but gas-fired generation in these States was up by 4,345 thousand megawatthours. Generation from conventional hydroelectric plants was 1.1 percent higher in March 2009 than it had been in March 2008. Net generation from wind sources was 38.5 percent higher. Higher wind generation totals in Iowa, Texas, Minnesota, and Wyoming accounted for 57.5 percent of the national increase. Petroleum liquid-fired generation was down by 1.2 percent compared to a year ago, and its overall share of net generation continued to be quite small compared to coal, nuclear, natural gas-fired, and hydroelectric sources.

Figure 1: Net Generation by Major Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), April 2008 through March 2009

Year-to-date, total net generation was down 4.6 percent from 2008 levels. Net generation attributable to coal-fired plants was down 11.7 percent. Nuclear generation was up by 2.0 percent. Generation from petroleum liquids was up by 21.7 percent, while natural gas-fired generation was up by 1.0 percent year-to-date. The 38.5-percent jump in wind generation in March contributed to a year-to-date increase of 34.9 percent.

Year-to-date, coal-fired plants contributed 46.8 percent of the Nation’s electric power. Nuclear plants contributed 21.2 percent, while 20.3 percent was generated at natural gas-fired plants. Of the 1.3 percent generated by petroleum-fired plants, petroleum liquids represented 0.9 percent, with the remainder from petroleum coke. Conventional hydroelectric power provided 6.5 percent of the total, while other renewables (biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind) and other miscellaneous energy sources generated the remaining 3.9 percent of electric power (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Net Generation Shares by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), Year-to-Date through March, 2009

Consumption of Fuels: Consumption of coal for power generation in March 2009 was down by 13.1 percent compared to March 2008. For the same time period, consumption of petroleum liquids was up by 4.3 percent, while petroleum coke increased by 18.4 percent. Consumption of natural gas increased by 9.1 percent.

Fuel Stocks, Electric Power Sector, March 2009

Total electric power sector coal stocks increased between March 2008 and March 2009 by 29.6 million tons. Stocks of bituminous coal (including coal synfuel) increased by 29.9 percent, or 17.7 million tons between March 2008 and March 2009 (from 59.3 to 77.1 million tons). Subbituminous coal stocks grew by 10.7 million tons between March 2008 and March 2009 (from 83.3 to 94.0 million tons). This is the eighth month in a row that coal stocks are higher than the comparable month in the prior year.

Electric power sector liquid petroleum stocks totaled 43.0 million barrels at the end of March 2009, a decrease of 1.3 percent (0.6 million barrels) from March 2008. March 2009 stocks were 1.2 percent (0.5 million barrels) higher than at the end of February 2009.

Fuel Receipts and Costs, All Sectors, March 2009

In March 2009, the price of coal to electricity generators increased slightly from the previous month, while the cost of petroleum and natural gas decreased. Receipts of petroleum liquids decreased during this same time frame, but receipts of coal and natural gas increased.

The average price paid for coal in March 2009 was $2.29 per MMBtu, up 0.4 percent from the price paid in February. It was 18.7 percent higher when compared with the March 2008 price of $1.93 per MMBtu. Receipts of coal in March were 86.2 million tons, up 4.7 percent when compared with February 2009 data and down 2.1 percent from March 2008.

The average price paid for petroleum liquids decreased from $8.48 per MMBtu in February 2009 to $8.08 in March. This was a 4.7-percent decrease from February and a 45.4-percent decrease from March 2008. Receipts of petroleum liquids in March 2009 were 5.2 million barrels, a decrease of 10.5 percent from February 2009 and a 26.3-percent increase from March 2008.

The average price paid for natural gas by electricity generators in March was $4.69 per MMBtu, an 11.8-percent decrease from the February 2009 level of $5.32 and a 48.9-percent decrease from March 2008. Receipts of natural gas were 603.5 million Mcf, up 12.0 percent from February 2009 and up 7.4 percent from March 2008.

The overall price paid by electricity generating plants for fossil fuels was $2.98 per MMBtu in March 2009, a 4.5-percent decrease from February 2009 and a 22.0-percent decrease from March 2008. Year-to-date (January through March) 2009 prices compared to the same period last year were up 18.9 percent for coal, down 43.5 percent for petroleum liquids, and down 36.5 percent for natural gas. Year-to-date 2009 receipts compared to the same period last year were down 1.3 percent for coal, up 46.7 percent for petroleum liquids, and down 0.6 percent for natural gas.

Figure 3: Electric Power Industry Fuel Costs, April 2008 through March 2009

Sales, Revenue, and Average Retail Price, March 2009

The average retail price of electricity for March 2009 was 9.75 cents per kilowatthour (kWh), 0.8 percent lower than February 2009 when the average retail price of electricity was 9.83 cents per kWh, and 7.0 percent higher than March 2008, when the price was 9.11 cents per kWh. Retail sales between March 2008 and March 2009 decreased 3.9 percent. The average price of residential electricity for March 2009 increased 0.81 cents per kWh to 11.38 cents per kWh from March 2008 and was up from 11.23 cents per kWh in February 2009. At 11.38 cents per kWh, the average residential price of electricity increased by 7.7 percent from March 2008.

Sales: For March 2009, sales in the residential and commercial sectors both decreased by 0.6 percent while sales in the industrial sector decreased by 12.7 percent, as compared to March 2008. For the month, total retail sales were 281.9 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.1 billion kWh from February 2009, and a decrease of 3.9 percent or 11.6 billion kWh from March 2008. Year-to-date 2009, sales were 886.4 billion kWh, a 4.0-percent decrease over the same period for 2008.

Revenue: Total retail revenues in March 2009 were $27.5 billion, reflecting an increase in revenue of 2.8 percent from March 2008, and a 1.9-percent decrease from February 2009. The revenue increase year-over-year can be attributed to higher fuel costs. For March 2009, residential and commercial sector retail revenues increased 7.0 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, from March 2008, while the industrial sector retail revenues decreased by 8.6 percent. Year-to-date 2009, revenue increased to $86.7 billion, a 4.0-percent increase over the same period for 2008.

Average Retail Price: For the month, average residential retail prices increased to 11.38 cents per kWh from 11.23 cents per kWh in February 2009, although they were 7.7 percent higher than March 2008 when the price was 10.57 cents per kWh. The March 2009 average commercial retail price was 10.07 cents per kWh, a 4.7-percent increase from March 2008 and down slightly from 10.16 cents per kWh in February 2009. The average industrial retail price for March 2009 rose to 6.84 cents per kWh, a 4.6-percent increase over March 2008 and down slightly from 6.98 cents per kWh in February 2009. Year-to-date 2009, average retail prices increased to 9.78 cents per kWh, an 8.3-percent increase over the same period for 2008 (Figure 4).

Figure 4: Average Retail Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, Year-to-Date through March 2009 and 2008

Contacts:

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Fuel Receipts, Cost, and Quality -
Sales, Revenue, and Average Retail Price of Electricity -