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WEPS is an integrated set of personal, computer-based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. Projections of the WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product [GDP]) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, and other renewable sources).

WEPS provides projections of total world primary energy consumption, as well as projections of energy consumption by primary energy type (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, and hydroelectric and other renewable sources) and projections of net electricity consumption. Carbon emissions resulting from fossil fuel use are derived from the energy consumption projections. All projections are computed in 5-year intervals through 2020. For both historical series and projections series, WEPS provides analytical computations of energy intensity and energy elasticity (the percentage change in energy consumption per percentage change in GDP).

Last Model Update:

April 2001

Part of Another Model?

No

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division
• Model Contact: Linda Doman
• Telephone: (202) 586-1041
• E-Mail Address: Linda.Doman@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, World Energy Projection System Model Documentation, DOE/EIA-M050(97)
(Washington, DC, 1997)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m05097.pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

World Energy Projection System (WEPS) 2001, April 2001.

Coverage:

• Geographic: World by selected countries and major regions
• Time Unit/Frequency: Projections of consumption by 5-year intervals through the year 2020
• Product(s): Units include million barrels per day (oil), trillion cubic feet (natural gas), million short tons (coal), billion kilowatt hours (nuclear and net electricity), and quadrillion British thermal units (all energy sources).

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: The model structure is an accounting framework of relationships concerning energy consumption, oil production, world oil prices, economic growth, and energy elasticities
• Modeling Technique: The major technique used in the WEPS is to project total energy by region based on an assumed relationship to economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). Projections of all other energy sources are made consistent with projected total energy. Econometric techniques are not used to determine changes in relationships over the projection period
• Special Features: None.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• International Energy Agency (Paris), Coal Information (Paris)
  • Total final energy consumption by fuel
  • Energy consumed by end use sector by fuel
• International Energy Agency, Electricity Information (Paris)
  • Energy consumed by fuel by electric utilities
• International Energy Agency (Paris), Energy Balances of OECD Countries (Paris)
  • Consumption of energy source (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, other) by end-use sector (industrial, building, transportation, electric utility) for OECD countries.
• International Energy Agency, Balances and Statistics of Non-OECD Countries (Paris)
  • Consumption of energy source (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, other) by end-use sector (industrial, building, transportation, electric utility for Non-OECD Countries.
• American Automobile Manufacturers Association, World Motor Vehicle Data (Detroit, MI, 1997)
  • Vehicle population by country
• Standard & Poor's DRI, World Economic Outlook: Volume I, 3rd Quarter (Lexington, MA)
  • Historical (1970-1999) real GDP (in 1997 U.S. dollars)
  • GDP projections (1998-2020)
• WEFA Group, World Economic Outlook: 20 Year Extension (Eddystone, PA)
  • Historical (1977-1995) real Gross Domestic Product (in 1990 U.S. dollars)

DOE Data Input Sources:

• Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (Washington, DC, annual)
  • U.S. consumption of energy source (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, other) by sector (industrial, transportation, building, and electric utility)
  • World oil price path
  • U.S. carbon emissions
  • U.S. net electricity consumption
• Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review (Washington, DC, annual)
  • GDP deflators
• Energy Information Administration, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternative Fuels; Coal, Nuclear, and Renewable Fuels Division
  • Nuclear power operating capacity
• Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual (Washington, DC, annual)
  • Oil consumption in quadrillion Btu and million barrels per day
  • Natural gas consumption in quadrillion Btu and trillion cubic feet
  • Coal consumption in quadrillion Btu and million short tons
  • Nuclear energy consumption (equated to generation) in quadrillion Btu and billion kilowatthours
  • Hydroelectricity and other renewable energy consumption in quadrillion Btu
  • Net electricity consumption in billion kilowatthours
  • Carbon emissions in million metric tons.

Computing Environment:

Consists of spreadsheet files and directories run on an IBM compatible personal computer using Windows 95. The world energy consumption spreadsheet programs require about 17.4 MB of hard disk space. To run the world energy consumption reference case spreadsheet requires about 640K of random access memory (RAM).