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The Transportation Sector Module incorporates an integrated modular design which is based upon economic, engineering, and demographic relationships that model transportation sector energy consumption at the nine Census Division level of detail. The Transportation Sector Module comprises the following components: Light Duty Vehicles, Light Duty Fleet Vehicles, Commercial Light Trucks, Freight Transport (truck, rail, and marine), Aircraft, and Miscellaneous Transport (military, mass transit, and recreational boats). The model provides sales estimates of 2 conventional and alternative fuel/advanced technology light duty vehicles, and consumption estimates of 12 main fuels.

Last Model Update:

February 2001

Part of Another Model?

Yes, part of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: Energy Demand and Integration Division
• Model Contact: John Maples
• Telephone: (202) 586-1757
• E-Mail Address: John.Maples@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: Transportation Sector Model of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M070 (2001) (Washington, DC, February 2001)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m0702001.pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Module System.

Coverage:

• Geographic: Nine Census Divisions: New England, Mid Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain, and Pacific
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual through 2020
• Product(s): Motor gasoline, aviation gasoline, diesel/distillate, residual oil, electricity, jet fuel, LPG, CNG, methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, lubricants, pipeline fuel natural gas
• Economic Sector(s): Forecasts are produced for personal and commercial travel, freight trucks, railroads, domestic and international marine, aviation, mass transit, and military use.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Light-duty vehicles are classified according to the six EPA size classes for cars and light trucks. Freight trucks are divided into medium-duty and heavy-duty size classes. Buses are subdivided into commuter, intercity, and school buses. The air transport module contains both wide- and narrow-body aircraft. Rail transportation is composed of freight rail and three modes of personal rail travel: commuter, intercity and transit. Shipping is divided into domestic and international categories
• Modeling Technique: The modeling techniques employed in the Transportation Sector Module vary by module: econometrics for passenger travel, aviation, and new vehicle market shares; exogenous engineering and judgement for MPG, aircraft efficiency, and various freight characteristics; and structural for light-duty vehicle and aircraft capital stock estimations
• Special Features: The Transportation Sector Module has been created to allow the user to change various exogenous and endogenous input levels. The range of policy issues that the transportation model can evaluate are: fuel taxes and subsidies, fuel economy levels by size class, CAFE levels, vehicle pricing policies by size class, demand for performance within size classes; fleet vehicle sales by technology type, alternative fuel/advanced technology light duty vehicle sales shares, the Energy Policy Act; Low Emission Vehicle Program, VMT reduction, and greenhouse gas.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• National Energy Accounts
• Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics, FHWA-PL-017, November 1999
• Department of Transportation Air Travel Statistics
• U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Air Carrier Traffic Statistics Monthly,
  December 1997/1996
• National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, Mid-Year Fuel Economy Report, 1999
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Energy Data Book 20, ORNL-6959, October 2000
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Fleet Vehicles in the U.S., 1992
• Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Aviation Forecasts: Fiscal Years 1993-2004, February 1998
• Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Truck Inventory and Use Survey, 1992
• California Air Resources Board, Proposed Regulations for Low-Emission Vehicles and Clean Fuels, Staff Report,
  August 13, 1990.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• State Energy Data System (SEDS), DOE/EIA-0214 (97), September 1999
• Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), DOE/EIA-0202 (00/3Q).

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.