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The STHGM performs a short-term (18- to 27-month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Last Model Update:

May 1993

Part of Another Model?

None

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels
• Division: Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Division
• Model Contact: Jim Knaub
• Telephone: (202) 287-1733
• E-Mail Address: James.Knaub@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model, DOE/EIA-M053 (96) (Washington, DC).

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

Archived on Energy Information Administration mainframe system.

Coverage:

• Geographic: National, Census Division
• Time Unit/Frequency: Monthly
• Product(s): Hydroelectric generation
• Economic Sector(s): Electric utilities.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model with an explanatory variable
• Modeling Technique: Time series analysis
• Special Features: None.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• 1970-1987 and Average: National Climatic Data Center, State, Regional, and National Monthly and Annual Precipitation Weighted by Area for the Contiguous United States, January 1931-December 1987 (Ashville, NC, August 1988), p.66. 1988-1992: Monthly State, Regional and Nation Heating Degree Days Weighted by Population (Ashville, NC, March 1989 through 1993), Table 3.3, "Regional and National Average Precipitation"
  • National precipitation data
• On the Internet: URL ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/yymm.pcpst
  • State level precipitation data used in pre-processing mode to obtain preliminary Census Division-level precipitation.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• Energy Information Administration, Data bases for Form EIA-759, Monthly Power Plant Report, and predecessors
  • Hydroelectric generation data.

Computing Environment:

• Hardware Used: Energy Information Administration Mainframe System
• Operating System: MVS
• Language/Software Used: SAS version 6.08
• Memory Requirement: 2000K
• Storage Requirement: 10 Mb
• Estimated Run Time: Approximately 15 seconds computer time on EIA Mainframe System
• Special Features: None.