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The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is an integrated dynamic modeling system that projects residential energy demand by service, fuel, and Census Division. The modeling methodology is based on accounting principles and considers important issues related to consumer behavior. Housing and equipment stocks are tracked over the forecast period for ten major services. The major services considered are space heating, space cooling, clothes washing, dish washing, water heating, cooking, clothes drying, lighting, refrigeration, and freezers. A logit function is used to estimate market shares of each equipment technology within each major service based on either the installed capital and operating costs or the life-cycle cost. Miscellaneous appliance consumption is calculated as a function of Unit Energy Consumption (UEC), a measure of energy intensity developed from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) data base.

Last Model Update:

December 2000

Part of Another Model?

The Residential Sector Demand Module is designed, executed, and maintained as part of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: Energy Demand and Integration Division
• Model Contact: John H. Cymbalsky
• Telephone: (202) 586-4815
• E-Mail Address: John.Cymbalsky@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: Residential Sector Demand Model of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M067 (2001) (Washington, DC, December 2000)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m0672001.pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.

Coverage:

• Geographic: Nine Census Divisions: New England, Middle Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain, and Pacific
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual through 2020
• Product(s): Fuel consumption including: electricity, natural gas, distillate, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, geothermal, wood, solar thermal, and coal. Energy consumption per household. Equipment stock and efficiency.
• Economic Sector(s): Domestic residential sector
  • Services: Space heating, space cooling, clothes washers, dishwashers, water heating, cooking, clothes drying, refrigeration, freezers, lighting, other color televisions, furnace fans, personal computers, electric appliances, other appliances, and secondary space heating
  • Housing Types: Single-Family, Multifamily, and Mobile Homes.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Sequential algorithm composed of housing and equipment stock flow algorithms, technology choice algorithm, housing shell integrity algorithm, end-use consumption, and emissions calculations
• Modeling Technique: Housing and equipment stock turnover are modeled using linear decay functions. Market shares for each type of equipment choice are based on a logit function employing installed capital costs and operating costs. Unit energy consumption estimates, fuel prices, and equipment market shares are user inputs that drive the calculation of final end-use consumption
• Special Features: Technology choice logit function has the ability to use installed capital, and operating costs or life-cycle costs to determine new market shares.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• American Home Appliance Manufacturers Association
  • Shipment-weighted efficiency ratings for refrigerators, clothes washers, dishwashers, freezers, and room air conditioners
• U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Construction Report-Series C25 Characteristics of New Housing: 1996 (Washington, DC, 1998)
  • New housing and base year market shares for some services and equipment types
• Gas Appliance Manufactures Association, Consumers' Directory for Certified Efficiency Ratings, 1994
• Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Energy Data Sourcebook for the U.S. Residential Sector, 1997
  • Residential equipment technical characterization data
  • Expected minimum and maximum appliance lifetimes
  • Expected lifetimes of housing types
• Arthur D. Little, EIA Technology Forecast Updates — Residential and Commercial Buildings, 1998
• Arthur D. Little, Electricity Consumption by Small End Uses in Residential Buildings, 1998.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, A Look at Residential Energy Consumption in 1997
  • Base-year market shares for services and equipment types
  • Base-year housing stock
  • Unit energy consumption values (UECs).

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.