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The PPMM performs a short-term (6- to 9-month) forecast of demand and price in the residential U.S. propane market; the model also calculates the end-of-month stock level. The model can also be used to calculate the demand and end-of-month stock level in several PAD districts. The model is used to analyze certain market behavior assumptions or market shocks and to determine their effect on market price, demand, and stocks.

Last Model Update:

October 1993

Part of Another Model?

No

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Oil and Gas
• Division: Petroleum Marketing Division
• Model Contact: John Zyren
• Telephone: (202) 586-6405
• E-Mail Address: John.Zyren@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation of the Propane Market Model DOE/EIA-M055 (Washington, DC, October 1993).

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

Archived on micro-floppy disks.

Coverage:

• Geographic: National, PAD Districts 1 and 2
• Time Unit/Frequency: Monthly
• Product(s): Consumer-grade propane
• Economic Sector(s): Residential propane market

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Multi-equation model
• Modeling Technique: Ordinary least squares, with correction for autocorrelation
• Special Features: None.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) database, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Producer price index data
• U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Data Source DRD 964X
  • Actual and normal statewide monthly heating degree day values.

DOE Data Input Sources:

Forms and Publications:

• Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340 and Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109 (Washington, DC)
  • Propane/propylene stocks and product supplied
• Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Annual, DOE/EIA-0487 and Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380 (Washington, DC)
  • Average imported crude oil refiner acquisition costs, refiner price of propane (consumer-grade) sales to end users
• Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Report, DOE/EIA-0538, various issues
  • Residential propane prices.

Models and Other:

• Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System
  • Forecasts of economic and refinery variables.

Computing Environment:

• Hardware Used: IBM-compatible personal computer
• Operating System: MS-DOS
• Language/Software Used: Micro-TSP, Version 7.01 or higher
• Memory Requirement: 640 Kb
• Storage Requirement: 640 Kb
• Estimated Run Time: 30 seconds calculation time on an 80386 personal computer operating under DOS 5
• Special Features: None.