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Petroleum Market Model (PMM)

Description:

The Petroleum Market Model is a simulation of the U.S. petroleum industry. It includes 12 domestic crude oil production regions, three refining centers with full processing representations and capacity expansion capability and gas plant liquid production, and nine marketing regions. The heart of the model is a linear program optimization which ensures a rational economic simu- lation of decisions of petroleum sourcing, resource allocations, and the calculation of marginal price basis for the products. Eighteen refined products are manufactured, imported, and marketed. Seven of these products are specification blended, while the remaining 11 are recipe blended. Capacitated transportation systems are included to represent existing intra-U.S. crude oil and product shipments (liquefied petroleum gas, clean, dirty) via pipeline, marine tanker, barge, and truck/rail tankers. The export and import of crude oil and refined products are also simulated. All imports are purchased in accordance with import supply curves. Domestic manufacture of methanol is represented as though the processing plants were a part of the refinery complexes, whereas ethanol sources are treated as merchant. Transportation is allowed for ethanol shipments to the demand region terminals for splash blending. The program is written in FORTRAN, which includes callable subroutines allowing full communication with the LP portion of the model, which is in the form of an MPS resident file.

Last Model Update:

February 2001

Part of Another Model?

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: Oil and Gas Division
• Model Contact: Han-Lin Lee
• Telephone: (202) 586-4247
• E-Mail Address: HLee@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

• Energy Information Administration, EIA Model Documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), DOE/EIA-M059 (2001) (Washington, DC, February 2001)
  http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m0592001.pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.

Coverage:

• Geographic: Twelve domestic crude oil production regions (East Coast, Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, Rocky Mountain, West Coast, Atlantic Offshore, Gulf Offshore, Pacific Offshore, Alaska South, Alaska North, and Alaska Offshore); three refining regions (PAD District I, an aggregate of PAD Districts II-IV, and PAD District V); nine market regions, the Census divisions (New England, Mid Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain, and Pacific).
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual through 2020
• Product(s): LPG, conventional motor gasoline, conventional high-oxygen motor gasoline, reformulated motor gasoline, California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline, M85, E85, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, highway diesel, low-sulfur residual fuel oil, high-sulfur residual fuel oil, petrochemical feedstocks, asphalt/road oil, marketable coke, still gas, other.
  • Refinery Processes: crude distillation, vacuum distillation, delayed coker, fluid coker, visbreaker, fluid catalytic cracker, thermal cracker, hydrocracker-dist, hydrocracker-resid, solvent deasphalter, resid desulfurizer, FCC feed hydrofiner, distillate HDS, naphtha hydrotreater, catalytic reformer-450 psi, catalytic reformer-200 psi, alkylation plant, catalytic polymerization, pen/hex isomerization, butane isomerization, etherification, butanes splitter, dimersol, butylene isomerization, total recycle isomerization, naphtha splitter, C2-C5 dehydrogenator, cyclar unit hydrogen plant, sulfur plant, aromatics recovery plant, lube + wax plants, FCC gasoline splitter, gas/H2 splitter, stream transfers, fuel system, steam production, power generation.
  • Crude Oil: Alaska low sulfur light, Alaska mid sulfur heavy, domestic low sulfur light, domestic midsulfur heavy, domestic high sulfur light, domestic high sulfur heavy, domestic high sulfur very heavy, imported low sulfur light, imported mid sulfur heavy, imported high sulfur light, imported high sulfur heavy, imported high sulfur very heavy.
  • Transportation Modes: Jones Act dirty marine tanker, Jones clean marine tanker, LPG marine tanker, import tankers, clean barge, dirty barge, LPG pipeline, clean pipelines, dirty pipelines, rail/truck tankers. These cover all significant U.S. links.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: FORTRAN callable subroutines, which update the linear programming matrix, re-optimize, extract and post-process the solution results, update system variables, and produce reports.
• Modeling Technique: Optimization of linear programming representation of refinery processing and transportation which relates the various economic parameters and structural capabilities with resource constraints to produce the required product at minimum cost, thereby producing the marginal product prices in a manner that accounts for the major factors applicable in a market economy.
• Special Features: Choice of imports or domestic production of products is modeled, capacity expansion is determined endogenously, product prices include fixed and environmental costs, oxygenated and reformulated gasolines and low-sulfur diesel fuel are explicitly modeled.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

Information Resources Inc. (IRI), WORLD Model data; National Petroleum Council; ICF Resources, Oil and Gas Journal.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• EIA-14, Refiners' Monthly Cost Report
• EIA-182, Domestic Crude Oil First Purchase Report
• EIA-782A, Refiners'/Gas Plant Operators' Monthly Petroleum Product Sales Report
• EIA-782B, Reseller/Retailer's Monthly Petroleum Product Sales Report
• EIA-782C, Monthly Report of Prime Supplier Sales of Petroleum Products Sold for Local Consumption
• EIA-759, Monthly Power Plant Report
• EIA-810, Monthly Refinery Report
• EIA-811, Monthly Bulk Terminal Report
• EIA-812, Monthly Product Pipeline Report
• EIA-813, Monthly Crude Oil Report
• EIA-814, Monthly Imports Report
• EIA-817, Monthly Tanker and Barge Movement Report
• EIA-820, Annual Refinery Report
• EIA-826, Monthly Electric Utility Sales and Revenue Report with State Distributions
• EIA-856, Monthly Foreign Crude Oil Acquisition Report
• EIA-860B, Electric Generation Report — Nonutility
• FERC-423, Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Plants
• In addition to the above, information is obtained from several Energy Information Administration formal publications: Petroleum Supply Annual, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Petroleum Marketing Annual, Petroleum Marketing Monthly,
• Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales, Natural Gas Annual, Natural Gas Monthly, Annual Energy Review, Monthly Energy
• Review, State Energy Data Report, and State Energy Price and Expenditure Report.

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.