Released December 2002
(Next Release:
November 2003)

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Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

Description:

OGSM is used by the Oil and Gas Division in the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting as an analytic aid to support preparation of projections of reserves and production of crude oil and natural gas at the regional and national levels. The annual projections and associated analyses appear in the Annual Energy Outlook (DOE/EIA-0383) of the Energy Information Administration. The projections also are provided as a service to other branches of the U.S. Department of Energy, the Federal Government, and non-Federal public and private institutions concerned with the crude oil and natural gas industry.

OGSM projects the following aspects of the crude oil and natural gas supply industry:

  • production
  • reserves
  • drilling activity
  • natural gas imports and exports.

Last Model Update:

January 2001

Part of Another Model?

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Sponsor:

  • Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
  • Division: Oil and Gas Division
  • Model Contact: Ted McCallister
  • Telephone: (202) 586-4820
  • E-Mail Address: Ted.McCallister@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM), DOE/EIA-M063
(Washington, DC, January 2001)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m063(2001).pdf.

Coverage:

  • Geographic: Six lower 48 onshore supply regions, three lower 48 offshore regions, and three Alaskan regions.
  • Time Unit/Frequency: Annually through 2020
  • Product(s): Crude oil and natural gas
  • Economic Sector(s): Oil and gas field production activities and foreign natural gas trade.

Modeling Features:

  • Model Structure: Modular, containing six major components
    • Lower 48 Onshore Supply Submodule
    • Unconventional Gas Recovery Supply Submodule
    • Offshore Supply Submodule
    • Foreign Natural Gas Supply Submodule
    • Enhanced Oil Recovery Submodule
    • Alaska Oil and Gas Supply Submodule
  • Modeling Technique: The OGSM is a hybrid econometric/discovery process model. Drilling activities in the United States are determined by the discounted cash flow that measures the expected present value profits for the proposed effort and other key economic variables. LNG imports are projected on the basis of unit supply costs for gas delivered into the lower 48 pipeline network
  • Special Features: Can run stand-alone or within the NEMS. Integrated NEMS runs employ short-term natural gas supply functions for efficient market equilibration.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

  • Alaskan Oil and Gas Field Size Distributions, U.S. Geological Survey
  • Alaska Facility Cost by Oil Field Size, U.S. Geological Survey
  • Alaska Operating Cost, U.S. Geological Survey
  • Basin Differential Prices, Natural Gas Week, Washington, DC.
  • State Corporate Tax Rate, Commerce Clearing House, Inc., State Tax Guide
  • State Severance Tax Rate, Commerce Clearing House, Inc., State Tax Guide
  • Federal Corporate Tax Rate, Royalty Rate, U.S. Tax Code
  • Onshore Drilling Costs — (1) American Petroleum Institute, Joint Association Survey of Drilling Costs (1970-1998), Washington, DC.; (2) Additional unconventional gas recovery drilling and operating cost data from operating companies
  • Shallow Offshore Drilling Costs, American Petroleum Institute, Joint Association Survey of Drilling Costs (1970-1998), Washington, DC
  • Shallow Offshore Lease Equipment and Operating costs, Department of Interior. Minerals Management Service (correspondence from Gulf of Mexico and Pacific OCS regional offices)
  • Shallow Offshore Wells Drilled per Project, Department of Interior. Minerals Management Service (correspondence from Gulf of Mexico and Pacific OCS regional offices
  • Shallow and Deep Offshore Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Undiscovered Resources, Department of Interior. Minerals Management Service (correspondence from Gulf of Mexico and Pacific OCS regional offices)
  • Deep Offshore Exploration, Drilling, Platform, and Production Costs, American Petroleum Institute, Joint Association Survey of Drilling Costs (1995), ICF Resource Incorporated (1994), Oil and Gas Journals
  • Canadian Royalty Rate, Corporate Tax Rate, Provincial Corporate Tax Rate, Energy Mines and Resources Canada. Petroleum Fiscal Systems in Canada (Third Edition, 1988)
  • Canadian Wells Drilled, Canadian Petroleum Association, Statistical Handbook (1976-1993)
  • Canadian Lease Equipment and Operating Costs, Sproule Associates Limited, The Future Natural Gas Supply Capability of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (report prepared for TransCanada Pipelines Limited, January 1990)
  • Canadian Recoverable Resource Base, National Energy Board, Canadian Energy Supply and Demand 1990-2010, June 1991
  • Canadian Reserves, Canadian Petroleum Association, Statistical Handbook (1976-1993)
  • Unconventional Gas Resource Data — (1) USGS 1995 National Assessment of United States Oil and Natural Gas Resources; (2) Additional unconventional gas data from operating companies
  • Unconventional Gas Technology Parameters — (1) Advanced Resources International Internal studies; (2) Data gathered from operating companies.

DOE Data Input Sources:

  • Onshore Lease Equipment Cost, Energy Information Administration. Costs and Indexes for Domestic Oil and Gas Field Equipment and Production Operations (1980-1998), DOE/EIA-0815 (80-98)
  • Onshore Operating Cost, Energy Information Administration. Costs and Indexes for Domestic Oil and Gas Field Equipment and Production Operations (1980-1998), DOE/EIA-0815 (80-98)
  • Emissions Factors, Energy Information Administration
  • Oil and Gas Well Initial Flow Rates, Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas
  • Wells Drilled, Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas
  • Expected Recovery of Oil and Gas Per Well, Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas
  • Undiscovered Recoverable Resource Base, Energy Information Administration, The Domestic Oil and Gas Recoverable Resource Base: Supporting Analysis for the National Energy Strategy, SR/NES/92-05
  • Oil and Gas Reserves, Energy Information Administration. U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves (1977-1998), DOE/EIA-0216 (77-98).

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.