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The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that represents the mid-term natural gas market. The purpose of the NGTDM is to derive natural gas supply and end-use prices and flow patterns for movements of natural gas through the regional interstate network. The prices and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main components of the natural gas market: the supply component, the demand component, and the transmission and distribution network that links them.

Last Model Update:

October 2000

Part of Another Model?

Yes, the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: Oil and Gas Division
• Model Contact: Joseph Benneche
• Telephone: (202) 586-6132
• E-Mail Address: Joseph.Benneche@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

• Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation of the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), DOE/EIA-M062 (Washington, DC, February 2001)
  http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m0622001.pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.

Coverage:

• Geographic: Demand regions are the 12 NGTDM regions, which are based on the 9 Census Divisions with Census Division 5 split further into South Atlantic and Florida, Census Division 8 split further into Mountain and Arizona/New Mexico, and Census Division 9 split further into California and Pacific, with Alaska and Hawaii handled separately. Production is represented in the lower 48 at 17 onshore and 3 offshore regions. Import/export border crossings include 3 at the Mexican border, 7 at the Canadian border, and 4 liquefied natural gas import terminals. A simplified Canadian representation is subdivided into an eastern and western region
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual through 2020
• Product(s): Natural gas
• Economic Sector(s): Residential, commercial, industrial, electric generators, and transportation.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Modular; three major components: the Interstate Transmission Module (ITM), the Pipeline Tariff Module (PTM), and the Distributor Tariff Module (DTM)
  • ITM: Integrating module of the NGTDM. Simulates the natural gas price determination process by bringing together all major economic and technological factors that influence regional natural gas trade in the United States. Determines natural gas flows and prices, and pipeline and storage capacity expansion and utilization for a simplified network representing the interstate natural gas pipeline system
  • PTM: Develops parameters for setting tariffs in the ITM for transportation and storage services provided by interstate pipeline companies
  • DTM: Develops markups for distribution services provided by local distribution companies and intrastate pipeline companies
• Modeling Technique:
  • ITM: Heuristic algorithm, operates iteratively until supply/demand convergence is realized across the network
  • PTM: Econometric estimation and accounting algorithm
  • DTM: Empirical process
• Special Features:
  • Represents interregional flows of gas and pipeline capacity constraints for two seasonal periods
  • Represents regional supplies
  • Determines the amount and the location of pipeline and storage facility capacity expansion on a regional basis
  • Captures the economic tradeoffs between pipeline capacity additions and increases in regional storage capability
  • Distinguishes end-use customers by type (core and noncore).

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• Information Resources, Inc., Octane Week
  • Federal vehicle natural gas (VNG) taxes
• Canadian Petroleum Association Statistical Handbook
  • Historical Canadian supply and consumption data
• Mineral Management Service, Federal Offshore Statistics 1995
  • Alabama and Louisiana State and Federal offshore production before 1990
• Mineral Management Service
  • Revenues and volumes for offshore production in Texas, California, and Louisiana
• Foster Pipeline Financial Cost Data
  • Pipeline financial data
• Alaska Department of Natural Resources
  • State of Alaska north to south historical natural gas consumption ratio
• Data Resources Inc., U.S. Quarterly Model
  • Yield on AA utility bonds
• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Statistical Release,
  Selected Interest Rates and Bond Prices
  • Real average yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds.

DOE Data Input Sources:

Forms and Publications:

• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-23, Annual Survey of Domestic Oil and Gas Reserves
  • Annual estimate of gas reserves by type and State
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-176, Annual Report of Natural and Supplemental Gas Supply and Disposition
  • Annual natural gas sources of supply, consumption, and flows on the interstate pipeline network
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-857, Monthly Report of Natural Gas Purchases and Deliveries to Consumers
  • Monthly natural gas price and volume data on deliveries to end users
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-895, Monthly Quantity of Natural Gas Report
  • Monthly natural gas production
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860, Annual Electric Generator Report
  • Electric generators plant type and code information, used in the classification of power plants as core or noncore customers. Data from this report are also used in the derivation of historical prices and markups for firm interruptible service.
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-767, A Steam-Electric Plant Operation and Design Report
  • Electric generators plant type and boiler information, by month, used in the classification of power plants as core or noncore customers. Data from this report are also used in the derivation of historical prices and markups for firm/interruptible service.
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-759, Monthly Power Plant Report
  • Natural gas consumption by plant code and month, used in the classification of power plants as core or noncore customers. Data from this report are also used in the derivation of historical prices and markups for firm/interruptible services.
• Rate case filings under Section 4 of the Natural Gas Policy Act, as submitted to FERC by each pipeline company
  • Contract demand data and cost allocation by pipeline company
• Annual Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0384
  • Gross domestic product and implicit price deflator
• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Form FERC-2, Annual Report of Major Natural Gas Companies
  • Financial statistics of major interstate natural gas pipelines
  • Annual purchases/sales by pipeline (volume and price)
• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Form FERC-567, Annual Flow Diagram
  • Pipeline capacity and flow information
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-191, Underground Gas Storage Report
  • Base gas and working gas storage capacity and monthly storage injection and withdrawal levels by region and pipeline company
• Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-846, Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey
  • Base year average annual core industrial end-use prices
• Capacity and Service on the Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline System 1990, DOE/EIA-0556
  • Pipeline capacity and capacity reservations by customer
• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, NGA Section 7(c) Filings, "Applications for Certification of Public Convenience and Necessity"
  • Planned pipeline capacity additions
• Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0131
  • National forecast targets for first two forecast years beyond history
• Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Form 423, Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Utility Plants, DOE/EIA-0191
  • Natural gas prices to electric generators
• Department of Energy, www.afdc.doe.gov
  • Compressed natural gas vehicle taxes by state
• Department of Energy, Natural Gas Imports and Exports, Office of Fossil Energy
  • Import volumes by crossing in the most recent historical year
• Department of Energy, The Climate Change Action Plan Technical Supplement
  • Estimated savings from fugitive emissions

Models and Other:

• Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
  • Domestic supply, imports, and demand representations are provided as inputs to the NGTDM from other NEMS modules.

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.