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MAM is comprised of four submodules: National, Employment, Interindustry, and Regional. The National Submodule is a kernel regression approximation of the proprietary U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model developed by Data Resources/McGraw-Hill, Inc. (DRI). The U.S. Quarterly Model is a 1,200 equation econometric specification that forecasts macroeconomic driver variables at the national level of detail.

The Interindustry Submodule is a response surface approximation of the DRI Personal Computer Input-Output (PCIO) Model. The DRI PCIO model is a detailed input-output representation of interindustry linkages that works in tandem with the full DRI U.S. Quarterly Model.

The Employment Submodule is a response surface approximation of the DRI Econometric Model of Employment by Industry. The DRI Econometric Model of Employment by Industry, on which the response surface Employment Submodule is based, uses interindustry gross output from DRI's Personal Computer Input-Output (PCIO) Model as its major input when determining employment.

The Regional Submodule consists of a set of shares at the nine Census Division level of detail developed from simulations of DRI's U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model, PCIO Model, Employment Model, and Regional Model. The regional shares included as the Regional Submodule of MAM are used to disaggregate the national results generated by the National, Interindustry, and Employment Submodules of MAM to the nine Census Division level of detail.

Last Model Update:

December 2000

Part of Another Model?

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division
• Model Contact: Ron Earley
• Telephone: (202) 586-1398
• E-Mail Address: Ronald.Earley@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M065 (2001) (Washington, DC, December 2000)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m065(2001).pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.

Coverage:

• Geographic: Nine Census Divisions
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual through 2020
• Product(s): Forecasts of domestic macroeconomic driver variables, at the national, interindustry, and nine Census Division levels of detail
• Economic Sector(s): National macroeconomic activity.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: MAM is composed of four Submodules: National, Interindustry, Employment, and Regional. The four submodules are executed sequentially in the order presented, and subsequent submodules build upon the results of previously executed submodules
• Modeling Technique: The National Submodule is a kernel regression representation, and the Employment and Inter-industry Submodules of MAM are econometric response surface representations of large proprietary econometric models. The Regional Submodule of MAM is composed of shares developed from simulations of large econometric macroeconomic, interindustry, employment, and regional models
• Special Features: None.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

DRI input data from the DRI U.S. Quarterly Macroeconomic Model, the DRI PCIO Model, the DRI Employment Model, and the DRI Regional Model.

DOE Data Input Sources:

MAM relies upon the DRI input data to generate the baseline growth path. Alternative growth paths are developed based on alternative economic driver variable growth path assumptions. DOE data are not used to develop the MAM.

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.