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IEM is a recursive model of world petroleum supply and demand by region derived from EIA's Oil Market Simulation (OMS-PC) Model with enhanced detail on U.S. market conditions from the NEMS Petroleum Market Model (PMM). IEM determines PAD District-level import supply schedules by refined product type and crude oil grade consistent with estimated world oil price. IEM outputs include forecasted world oil price, non-OPEC oil production and oil consumption by region, and OPEC oil production and capacity utilization.

Last Model Update:

February 1999

Part of Another Model?

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division:International, Economic, and Greenhouse Gases Division
• Model Contact: Dan Butler
• Telephone: (202) 586-9503
• E-Mail Address: george.butler@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: NEMS International Energy Module, DOE/EIA-M071 (99) (Washington, DC, February 1999)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m07199.pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

See the Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.

Coverage:

• Geographic:
  • Demand Regions: United States (50 States and territories), Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, OECD Europe, Other Central and South America, Pacific Rim, Other Developing Countries, Former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, OPEC
  • Supply Regions: United States (50 States and territories), Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, OECD Europe, Other Central and South America, Pacific Rim, Other Developing Countries, Former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, OPEC
  • U.S. Detail: PAD District-level import supply curves
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual through 2020
• Product(s): 5 grades of crude oil, 10 refined products, and 2 oxygenates (methanol and MTBE)
• Economic Sector(s): Major oil-consuming countries, regionalized above.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: The model includes three subcomponents: The World Oil Market (WOM); Petroleum Product Supply (PPS); and Oxygenates Supply (OS). The structure of the WOM component is based on the OMS model, with greater U.S. detail from NEMS PMM
• Modeling Technique: Recursive simulation (search for equilibrium oil price), linear programming (derive import supply curves), econometrics (estimate parameters of OPEC price reaction curve and rest of world crude demand/supply curves)
• Special Features: None.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

None.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review, Monthly Energy Review, International Energy Annual, and International Petroleum Statistics Report (Washington, DC, annually)
  • U.S. crude oil supply and demand from PMM, reference demand and supply for rest of world (ROW) regions, initial (unadjusted) import supply curves from WORLD LP model.

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System.