NEMS Models
Other EIA Models
NEMS Contacts

Download the entire report in PDF format

Related Links

Forecasts Publications
EIA Publications

Wellhead Gas Production Capacity Model (GASCAP)

Description:

GASCAP estimates the historical wellhead productive capacity of natural gas for the lower 48 States and projects the productive capacity for 3 years. The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) output for low, base and high cases is used to estimate the number of active rigs and oil and gas well completions. The projected oil production is used to estimate the oil-well gas production (which is assumed to be producing at capacity) using a constant gas-oil ratio. The gas demand is also taken from STEO. The difference between demand and oil-well gas production is assumed to be the gas-well gas demand and the production as long as capacity exceeds demand.

Last Model Update:

September 1995

Part of Another Model?

No

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Oil and Gas
• Division: Reserves and Natural Gas Division
• Model Contact: Velton Funk
• Telephone: (214) 720-6171
• E-Mail Address: Velton.Funk@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation for the Wellhead Gas Productive Capacity Model, DOE/EIA-M052 (Washington, DC, March 1995).

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

Cartridge tape available from NEIC for GASCAP94, for the report Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower 48 States 1984 through 1997, DOE/EIA-0542 (96R).

Coverage:

• Geographic: Lower-48 natural gas producing States
• Time Unit/Frequency: Evaluates 13 years of historical data and projects productive capacity for 3 years
• Product(s): Natural gas
• Economic Sector(s): Not applicable.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: The model consists of a series of Statistical Analysis System (SAS) procedures utilizing a modified rate of gas production versus cumulative gas production (Rate-cum) equation
• Modeling Technique: SAS, utilizing the least squares, nonlinear regression procedure (NLIN) with the Marquardt computational method, was used to fit hyperbolic equations to the data
• Special Features: Estimates conventional and coalbed gas-well productive capacity separately.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• Dwight's Energy Data, Inc., Richardson, TX, Oil and Gas Reports
  • State monthly natural gas production by well
• Baker Hughes Incorporated
  • Number of active rotary rigs and number of active rotary gas rigs
• American Petroleum Institute
  • Drilling statistics monthly tapes.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual, DOE/EIA-0131 (Washington, DC, annually)
  • Marketed wet natural gas production by State
  • Gross gas production by State
  • Oil well gas production by State
• Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130 (Washington, DC, monthly)
  • State marketed gas production
• Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035 (Washington, DC, monthly)
  • Crude oil production
  • World oil price (imported refiner acquisition cost)
  • Marketed gas production
  • Natural gas wellhead price
• Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0202 (Washington, DC, quarterly)
  • Marketed dry natural gas demand
  • Oil and gas price forecasts.

Computing Environment:

Mainframe

• Hardware Used: IBM 3090E Model 400
• Operating System: MVS/XA
• Language/Software Used: FORTRAN, SAS, and COBOL
• Memory Requirement: 1500 K
• Storage Requirement: 1200 tracks of 2280 disk space
• Estimated Run Time: 4 hours CPU time
• Special Features: None.

Personal Computer

• Hardware Used: Compaq Diskpro 386/20
• Operating System: MS DOS
• Language/Software Used: Lotus 1-2-3; Excel; Arbiter; Harvard Graphics
• Memory Requirement: 2000K
• Storage Requirement: 10 Mb hard disk space
• Estimated Run Time: 1 hour
• Special Features: None.