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Disruption Impact Simulator Model (DIS)

Description:

The Disruption Impact Simulator (DIS) is a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet model that forecasts the world oil price and key economic effects of an oil supply disruption. Given a set of user-defined assumptions, such as inventory behavior and fuel-switching potential, the DIS estimates the world oil price, losses in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), increases in the inflation and unemployment rates, terms of trade and total economic losses, and national end use prices for gasoline and heating oil for six quarters. By using easy to understand interface screens, the user has more interaction with the DIS than most other spreadsheet models. DIS can also simulate how policy decisions, such as drawing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, will affect world oil markets. The model also estimates whether the International Energy Program (IEP) would be activated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), and, if so, what the effect would be on several IEA countries, including the United States.

Last Model Update:

October 1999

Part of Another Model?

No

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• Division: Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division
• Model Contact: Erik Kreil
• Telephone: (202) 586-6573
• E-Mail Address: Erik.Kreil@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation for the Disruption Impact Simulator (DIS) (Washington, DC, December 28, 1989).

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

• DIS4Q99.WK4 is available on a diskette from the model contact
• READ.ME describes any installation requirements and is available on a diskette
• Archived as part of the WEPS94 model in support of the International Energy Outlook 1994.

Coverage:

• Geographic: Countries in the International Energy Agency, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, former Centrally Planned Economies, and developing countries
• Time Unit/Frequency: Any six quarters, although generally used for the most current six quarters
• Product(s): Crude oil and petroleum products
• Economic Sector(s): Generally, most results are limited to the market economies of the world.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Equilibrium simulation
• Modeling Technique: Accounting of supply and demand changes from Business-As-Usual (BAU) data
• Special Features: Specially designed interface screens simplify the use of this model. Automatic generation of reports and graphs also simplify analysis of the model results.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

None.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0202 (Washington, DC)
  • BAU supply and demand
• Energy Information Administration, International Petroleum Monthly
  • World refinery gains and discrepancies.

Models and Other:

None

Computing Environment:

• Hardware used: IBM-compatible personal computer
• Operating System:
• Language/Software Used: Windows-based Lotus 1-2-3, Version 2.0 or greater
• Memory Requirement: 250 Kb
• Storage Requirement: 300 Kb
• Estimated Run Time: Solving the model takes under 10 seconds. Specifying assumptions for a run can take a couple of minutes
• Special Features: Fast turnaround and user interface.