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Description:

The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for 11 distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The market segment level of detail is modeled using a constrained life-cycle cost minimization algorithm that considers commercial sector consumer behavior and time preference premiums. The algorithm also models the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste; and the minor services of office equipment (with a separate breakout of personal computers), and "other" in less detail than the major fuels and services. Distributed generation and cogeneration are represented using a detailed cumulative positive cash flow approach to model penetration of distributed resources. Numerous specialized considerations are incorporated, including the effects of changing building shell efficiencies and consumption to provide district services.

Last Model Update:

December 2000

Part of Another Model?

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

Sponsor:

• Office: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
• Division: Energy Demand and Integration Division
• Model Contact: Erin Boedecker
• Telephone: (202) 586-4791
• E-Mail Address: Erin.Boedecker@eia.doe.gov

Documentation:

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: Commercial Sector Demand Model of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M066 (2001) (Washington, DC, December 2000)
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m066(2001).pdf.

Archive Media and Installation Manual(s):

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

Coverage:

• Geographic: Nine Census Divisions: New England, Mid Atlantic, East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain, and Pacific
• Time Unit/Frequency: Annual through 2020
• Product(s): Electricity, natural gas, distillate, residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, kerosene, wood, municipal solid waste
• Economic Sector(s): Eleven building categories: assembly, education, food sales, food services, healthcare, lodging, large office, small office, mercantile and service, warehouse, other. Ten services: space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, lighting, refrigeration, PC-related office equipment, non PC-related office equipment, and other.

Modeling Features:

• Model Structure: Sequential calculation of forecasted commercial floorspace, service demand, distributed resources penetration, technology choice, and end-use consumption
• Modeling Technique: Simulation of technology choice by decision type, within a service, within a building and Census division, for the current year of the forecast. Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey 1995 data are used for initial floorspace, market shares, fuel shares, district service shares. Engineering analyses are used for initial efficiency estimates
• Special Features: Technology choice data base and simulation technique is capable of accommodating an extensive range of policy analyses, including but not limited to demand-side management capital incentives, tax credits, and equipment efficiency standards.

Non-DOE Input Sources:

• Data Resources Inc. (DRI), F.W. Dodge
  • Commercial sector floorspace growth by Census division and building type
  • Description of floorspace categorization to enable mapping to DOE sources
• Arthur D. Little Technical Reports, EPRI Technical Assessment Guide, GRI Baseline Data Book (references provided in Appendix C to the report)
  • Commercial sector existing equipment characteristics, including typical equipment capacity, installed capital cost, operating and maintenance (O&M) cost, expected physical lifetime based on data from the years 1990-1998
  • Equipment research and development (R&D) advances and projected dates of model introduction, projections for technology availability encompassing the years 1999-2015
• Onsite Energy commercial combined heat and power report
  • Current and projected distributed generation technology cost and performance.

DOE Data Input Sources:

• Form EIA-871, Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey 1995 (CBECS 1995)
  • Base year floorspace by Census division, building type, building age cohort, energy-consuming characteristics
  • Base year district service consumption totals and relative shares
  • Base year Energy Use Intensity (EUI) by Census division, building type, and energy service
  • Base year equipment stock characteristics by Census division and energy service
  • Base year energy consumption for calculation of nonbuilding consumption to benchmark
• Form EIA-860B, Annual Electric Generator Report – Nonutility, forms for years 1995-1998
  • Historical commercial sector quantities of cogenerated electricity by Census division, generating fuel, and building type
  • Annual consumption of fuels for cogeneration by Census division and building type
  • Current status of commercial sector generating facilities
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Interlaboratory Documentation, 1990
  • Forecasted commercial sector renewable energy demand, by renewable source and energy service.

Computing Environment:

See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).