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Annual
Energy Outlook 2003
With
Projections to 2025 |
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Figure
1.
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- Average natural gas prices are projected to increase
over time, as technology improvements are unable to offset the
effects of resource depletion and increased demand. Prices reach
$3.90 per thousand cubic feet by 2025
- Projected average electricity prices (2001 dollars)
are projected to decline through 2007 at 2.5 percent per year
due to cost reductions in an increasingly competitive market faced
with excess generating capacity and a continued decline inproject-ed
coal prices. After 2007, electricity prices
are projected to increase by 0.4 percent per year as a result
of rising natural gas prices and a growing need for new generating
capacity to meet electricity demand growth.
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Figure
2.
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Through 2025,
projected energy use per dollar of gross domes- tic product
declines 1.5 percent per year and per capita energy consumption
increases by 0.7 per year. Efficiency gains and structural shifts
in the economy to less-energy-intensive in- dustries partially
offset growth in the demand for energy services, which results
from population growth and projected economic growth of 0.8
and 3.0 percent per year, respectively.
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| Notes: World Oil Price represents the
average refiner acquisition cost for imported crude oil. 2000 and
2001 represent partial historical data, which may be revised in later
publications. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol,
supplemental natural gas, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports
of petroleum include crude oil, petro- leum products, unfinished oils,
alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include
coal coke electricity. Some refinery inputs appear as petroleum product
consumption. Other consumption includes net electricity imports, liquid
hydrogen, and methanol. |
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Figure
3.
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- Projected energy demand grows at a rate of
1.5 percent per year through 2025. Improved equipment and building
efficiency moderates energy demand growth. The transportation
sector isexpected to grow the most rapidly,
due to increased personal and freight travel, slow stock turnover,
and consumer preferences for performance over efficiency.
- Electricity demand is projected to grow at
a rate of 1.8 percent per year. Rapid growth in computers, office
equipment, and electrical appliances is partially offset by
improved efficiency.
- Projected natural gas demand grows at a rate
of 1.8 percent per year, with the most rapid growth for electricity
generation. Pro- jected coal demand grows by 1.3 percent annually
with over 90 percent used for electricity generation.
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Figure
4.
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- Projected U.S. domestic crude oil production
declines from 5.8 to 5.3 million barrels per day by 2025. By 2025,
net petroleum imports, including both crude oil and product, are
expected to account for 68 percent of demand, up from 55 percent
in 2001, and refined petroleum products account for a growing
portion of total net imports.
- Total domestic natural gas production, with a
contribution from an Alaskan natural gas pipeline after 2020,
is projected to grow from 19.5 Tcf in 2001 to 26.8 Tcf by 2025.
Despite the increase, a growing share of U.S. demand is met by
imports, primarily from Canada and LNG. Net coal exports are expected
to fall throughout the forecast consistent with history and reflecting
declining coal demand in some countries and intense competi- tion
from other international producers.
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Figure
5.
- Electricity generation from natural gas, coal,
nuclear, and renewable fuels is projected to increase through
2025. The share of coal-fired generation declines to 48 percent
by 2025, but coal is still the primary generation fuel. Natural
gas generation grows to a 29 percent share by 2025.
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- Nuclear generation also increases over the forecast.
Based primarily on the relative economics of alternative technologies,
no new nuclear facilities are built, but the capacity of many
facilities is uprated resulting in a gradual expansion of total
generation that offsets the impact of about 3 gigawatts of retirements.
- Renewable technologies are projected to grow
slowly because of relatively low cost fossil generation and competitive
electricity markets that favor less capital-intensive natural
gas technologies over coal and baseload renewables in competition
for new capacity. Where enacted, State and Federal renewable portfolio
standards are considered in the forecast.
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Figure
6.
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- Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use grow
at 1.5 percent per year due to increases in energy demand met
predominantly with fossil fuels due to slow penetration by renewables
and only a slight rise in nuclear generation.
- In 2025, it is projected that petroleum will
account for 43 percent of emissions, mostly from transportation,
coal for 34 percent, and natural gas for 23 percent. In 2025,
electricity generation and transportation are expected to account
for 38 and 37 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, respectively,
due to continued reliance on fossil fuels.
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Visit
the AEO 2003 web site at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
EIA
web site: www.eia.doe.gov
For
Further Information, Contact: National Energy Information Center
Washington, DC E-Mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov (202)586-8800
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