Release Date: March 2009
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Annual
Energy
Outlook
2009 |
Energy Prices, 1980-2030 (2007 dollars per million Btu)
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The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 reference case, projects that world oil prices, expressed as the average price of imported low-sulfur light crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma, averaging near $60 per barrel in 2009, will rise as the global economy rebounds and global demand grows more rapidly than non-OPEC liquids supply. In 2030, the average price of crude oil is $130 per barrel in 2007 dollars.
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Average natural gas wellhead prices (2007 dollars) rise from 2008 levels to about $8.40 per thousand cubic feet in 2030. Higher capital costs and uncertainty surrounding greenhouse gas restrictions tilts demand to natural gas from coal, resulting in much higher unconventional natural gas production.
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Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Gross Domestic Product, 1980-2030 (index, 1980=1)
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From 2007 to 2030, energy use per 2000 dollar of gross domestic product (GDP) declines by more than one-third, while per capita energy consumption declines at an annual rate of 0.5 percent. Although energy use generally increases as the economy grows, higher energy prices, continuing improvement in the energy efficiency of the U.S. economy, and a shift to less energy-intensive activities keep the rate of energy consumption growth lower than the annual rate of GDP (2.5 percent) and population (0.9 percent) growth.
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Notes: Quantities are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. “Other” production includes liquid hydrogen,
methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils,
alcohol, ethers, and blending components. “Other” net imports include coal coke and electricity. “Other” consumption includes net electricity
imports, and nonbiogenic municipal solid waste.
Sources: Tables A1, A11, A13, A15, A18, and A19 from the Annual Energy Outlook 2009, December 2008.
Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1980-2030
(quadrillion Btu)
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Electricity demand grows at a rate of 1.0 percent per year, reaching 4,903 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Rapid growth in computers, office equipment, and electri-cal appliances is only partially offset by improved efficiency. While plug-in hybrids enter the market, their level of penetration does not significantly impact electricity demand growth.
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Natural gas demand grows 0.2 percent per year, with the most rapid growth rates for commercial applications. Natural gas use for electricity generation grows through 2025 before falling due to competition from coal, nuclear, and renewables. Coal demand grows by 0.8 percent annually, with about 90 percent used for electricity generation.
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Energy Production by Fuel, 1980-2030
(quadrillion Btu)
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Total domestic liquids supply grow from 8.7 million barrels per day in 2007 to 12.7 million barrels per day in 2030. The net import share of total liquids supplied, including crude oil, refined products, and biofuels, drops from 58 percent in 2007 to about 40 percent in 2030.
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Total domestic production of natural gas reaches 23.7 trillion cubic feet by 2030. While exploration and production costs rise over time, higher natural gas prices support this level of production. Uncon-ventional natural gas production, includ-ing shale gas, increases from 9.2 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 13.3 trillion cubic feet in 2030. With growing production of natural gas from unconventional sources, the Outer Continental Shelf, and Alaska, the net import share of total natural gas use declines, from 16 percent in 2007 to less than 3 percent in 2030.
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Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030(billion kilowatthours)
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Domestic coal production grows at a rate of 0.7 percent per year, from 1,147 million tons in 2007 to 1,341 million tons in 2030. This is driven by the increased use of existing electric generation plants, the addition of new coal plants, and some growth in coal-to-liquids production. Pro-duction from mines west of the Mississippi River provide the largest share of the incremental coal production.
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New natural gas and renewable plants account for the majority of generating capacity additions. The natural gas share of electricity generation remains between 19 percent and 22 percent through 2030. Coal's generation share declines from 49 percent to 45 percent between 2007 and 2025, then rebounds slightly to 47 percent in 2030.
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Nuclear generating capacity increases from 100.5 gigawatts in 2006 to 112.6 gigawatts in 2030, including 3.4 gigawatts from uprates of existing plants, 13.1 gigawatts of capacity at newly constructed power plants, and 4.4 giga-watts of retirements.
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Renewable generation growth is the strongest between now and 2030. Spurred by incentive programs in more than half the states, the renewable share of generation grows from 8 percent of generation in 2007 to 14 percent of generation in 2030. Bio-mass and wind are projected to be the largest contributors to the growth.
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Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use grow by 0.3 percent per year from 5,991 million metric tons in 2007 to 6,414 million metric tons in 2030, slower than the increase in energy consumption due to more reliance on less carbon intensive fuels. Carbon emissions per capita decline from 19.8 tons in 2007 to 17.1 tons in 2030.
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